A divided congress awaits Uruguay’s next president

Uruguay’s next president will face constraints in congress regardless of the result of the November 24 runoff between Yamandú Orsi and Álvaro Delgado.

Orsi, of the left-leaning Frente Amplio alliance, won 46.2% of votes in the first round on October 27 and Delgado, of the ruling center-right National Party, came second with 28.2%.

Frente Amplio emerged with a majority in the senate, winning 16 seats out of 30, three more than in 2019. The other groups in the upper house are the National Party with nine seats, one less than five years ago, and the Colorado Party with five, which gained one compared to the previous election. 

The composition of the lower house is more fractured with Frente Amplio winning 48 seats, six more than the previous election but two less than the 50 needed for a majority.

Meanwhile, the seats won by the “multicolor” coalition comprising the National, Colorado, Independent and Cabildo Abierto parties fell from 56 to 49 but it remains the largest force. 

One new participant is anti-globalization group Identidad Soberana, which won two lower house seats and has been highly critical of both main factions since its founding in 2022, claiming the country’s sovereignty is being violated by international interests. The group also denies manmade climate change, opposed obligatory COVID-19 vaccines, and proposes abolishing gender violence and abortion laws, according to the party’s platform.

If Delgado were to win in the runoff, he would have to negotiate with Frente Amplio to get laws passed through the senate.

On the other hand, Orsi would be able to negotiate with each of the parties of the multicolor coalition separately, giving him a chance of passing bills through the lower house without dealing with the bloc as a whole.

The ruling coalition has not been immune to internal rifts. President Luis Lacalle Pou has admitted that his pension reform, which among other aspects increased the retirement age from 60 to 65, was significantly watered down due to divisions within the ruling bloc.

Both leading candidates agree on the need to address the country’s fiscal deficit, which reached 4.3% of GDP as of August, according to data from the finance ministry.

Delgado’s program promises that he will not impose new taxes, instead opting for slashing the number of employees in the public sector by 15,000, reining in public spending, boosting foreign trade and reducing approval times for investment projects.

Orsi, meanwhile, has said he will not seek to impose “unnecessary” new taxes, though he is expected to increase rates on higher incomes as a gesture to his base.

Other aspects of his program include boosting youth employment, reactivating a dam project for Montevideo that was discarded by the current government, promoting electromobility, developing technological parks and cutting bureaucracy.

The new president takes office March 1.