Brazil’s energy-related GHG emissions expected to grow 20% by 2034

Brazil’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy production and use are expected to grow around 20% in the next 10 years, jumping from 458MtCO2eq (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) to 544MtCO2eq, federal energy research company EPE projects. 

The increase reflects the growth of the economy and investments in infrastructure linked to rising demand for and supply of energy.

The transportation and industry sectors continue to be the main emitters, maintaining their combined share at around 70% by 2034. 

Source: BNamericas based on EPE's data

Source: BNamericas based on EPE's data

The relatively low variation of the transportation segment, of 12% (241MtCO2e vs. 269MtCO2e), is a consequence of the replacement of fuels with renewables, such as ethanol and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), gains in motorization and systemic efficiency, and insertion of electric vehicles.

The energy sector, which, according to EPE covers the electricity sector and areas such as oil, natural gas, coal, transportation, industries and biofuels, sees a variation of 37% (27.8MtCO2eq vs. 38.1MtCO2eq), reflecting greater demand and consumption associated with oil and gas exploration, production and refining.

The electricity sector deals with the electricity system, agents and institutions, including isolated systems, according to EPE.

Despite accounting for only 5% of total energy emissions in 2034, the national interconnected system (SIN) shows the greatest variation over the 10-year period (84%), due to the entry of natural gas-fired plants. The system does not cover Roraima state and some isolated locations in the Amazon region and Fernando de Noronha island.

Even with the increase in emissions due to the improvement in Brazil's socio-economic standards by 2034, the projection of 2.4tCO2eq/inhabitant shows that the country's per capita emissions will remain comparatively low, considering that in 2022 the country registered 2tCO2eq/inhabitant, Europe 5.4tCO2eq/inhabitant and the US 13.8tCO2eq/inhabitant. 

According to EPE, the energy sector's main strategy for mitigating emissions is to maintain the large share of renewables and seek innovative solutions and technologies, taking into account the particularities of the country and the cost-effectiveness of the possible paths.

“With regard to adaptation, the strategies include better understanding climate change and its impacts, incorporating actions into planning and prioritizing measures that strengthen the system's resilience in an integrated manner,” the company's study said. 

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

EPE mapped the main environmental concerns for each Brazilian region, considering their energy consumption and production expansion.  

In the north, the main concern is related to the strong presence of indigenous people. The region is home to biodiesel, ethanol, hydroelectric, thermoelectric, transmission and oil exploration and production activities and projects. 

In the center-west, the concern is the concentration of existing and planned hydroelectric projects.

In the south, hydroelectric plants and transmission lines stand out. There is sensitivity due to the cumulative and synergistic effects associated with river fragmentation and interference with native vegetation. 

A large and diverse expansion is planned in the southeast. With the exception of wind power and gas pipelines, there are all kinds of projects. There is sensitivity due to the concentration of projects and existing conflicts, especially over water use.

The northeast is seeing the greatest expansion of wind farms, photovoltaic plants and transmission lines. The main concern is the cumulative interference associated with wind farms, photovoltaic plants and transmission lines.