Brazil's solar energy price expected to remain stable

The price of solar energy in Brazil is likely to remain stable in 2024 and 2025, according to Fabio Carrara, CEO and founder of Solfácil.

Carrara believes “slight falls” are possible, despite the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the greenback.

"The variations will be less marked compared to those seen in the last year and a half," he told BNamericas. 

In a recent study, Solfácil found that the average price of solar energy in Brazil for homes fell 9% in the first half.

The average price, which was 2.92 reais (US$0.53) per watt-peak (Wp) in the last quarter of 2023, fell to 2.66 reais/Wp in the second quarter this year.

The reduction was driven by the fall in the cost of polysilicon, the main raw material for making solar panels. In the second quarter alone, the decrease was 4%. 

The data shows that the drop in project prices was maintained across all ranges, from 2-4kWp to over 15kWp.

Almost all Brazilian states recorded a reduction in prices in the second quarter, except for Minas Gerais. 

The biggest drops were seen in Rio Grande do Sul, where the average solar energy price is 2.67 reais/Wp, and in Roraima (2.34 reais/Wp), with a 15% reduction compared to the first quarter.     

Rondônia’s price, now 2.30 reais/Wp, fell 9%, making it the cheapest state to install residential solar energy in Brazil, followed by Roraima (2.34 reais/Wp), Amapá (2.36 reais/Wp), Acre (2.47 reais/Wp) and Mato Grosso (2.49 reais/Wp).

Solfácil also analyzed the choice of solar inverter brands in different regions of Brazil. Deye and Goodwe overtook Growatt as the inverter brands most frequently requested. Deye stood out regarding lower power projects, while Goodwe is gaining ground in larger projects.

Solfácil offers financing, distribution of solar equipment, a solar energy monitoring system, insurance and a benefits program for integrators.

The company’s investors include QED Investors, SoftBank Group, Valor and the World Bank (IFC), which have contributed more than 800mn reais over three rounds of capitalization. 

DEMAND

According to Carrara, demand for solar systems is expected to grow.  

"The second half of the year usually sees an increase in demand for solar energy, especially as summer approaches," he said.  

He added that consumers tend to look for alternatives, such as installing their own power generation systems, to reduce costs. 

"In addition, the recent Aneel resolution that solves the negatives of power flow inversion projects for projects of up to 7.5kWp should boost demand in this segment, especially for smaller projects," said Carrara.