Ecuador officially convenes elections amid fears of increased violence

Ecuador’s national electoral council (CNE) officially convened general elections for February 9, 2025.

Around 14 million Ecuadorans eligible to vote were called to elect the president, 151 assembly members (compared to the current 137) and five representatives to the Andean parliament.

The call came amid fears among the population that the violence affecting the South American nation will worsen by February due to the presence of drug cartels and other organized crime groups.

The facts seem to confirm these fears. On September 12, the same day that the CNE convened the elections, María Daniela Icaza, director of the Litoral penitentiary, the largest prison in the country, was shot dead.

Nine days earlier, Alex Guevara, director of a prison in the Amazonian province of Sucumbíos, was murdered.

On September 15, a shootout during a soccer game in the Amazonian province of Orellana, which while not leaving victims, raised the alarm among the population of the oil-producing zone.

In April, in the days leading up to the referendum called by President Daniel Noboa, when most of the questions were on legal and constitutional reforms related to security, two mayors were murdered amid an upsurge in violence and threats of attacks.

“I think organized crime is going to play a role in these elections because it will be looking for which candidate or government it feels most comfortable operating under, and that will mean they will take a series of actions,” Cristian Carpio, a senior analyst at political risk consultancy Prófitas, told BNamericas.

The new president is due to serve between May 2025 and May 2029.

Noboa, who will run for reelection in February, replaced Guillermo Lasso to complete his presidential term. In May last year, Lasso, invoking a constitutional provision, dissolved the national assembly in the face of an impeachment vote that threatened to remove him from office, and called for early presidential and legislative elections.

The presidential elections in August last year were marked by extreme violence, in which anti-corruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated.

“The last elections marked a before and an after in Ecuadoran politics. We all hope that the elections will be a democratic celebration, allowing for an informed vote to address the country's main problems. I regret to say that there are no conditions for that ideal situation,” political analyst Ana Changuín told BNamericas.

REGISTRATION 

The official registration of candidates began on September 13 and will continue until October 2. Before the official process started, 17 candidates had presented themselves, but experts believe that some of those might not register their candidacy in the end.

According to the latest polls from August, Noboa and Luisa González, a candidate from the political movement of former leftist president Rafael Correa, are the favorites.

According to polling firm Cedatos Gallup, the right-leaning Noboa had 54% support followed by González with 25%.

"You always have to consider the different scenarios. I think that at this time, despite the voting intention shown by the polls, it is very premature to predict what may happen. The first filter will be to see who finally registers as candidates. Nothing is certain yet and I think there could be surprises," says Changuín.

Three factors that could change voting intentions are the electricity crisis the country is facing, which could mean power outages, crime and economic problems, including unemployment.

The government is struggling to avoid massive power cuts, which could affect President Noboa's image and ratings, as could security issues and the handling of the economy, Carpio says.

"The actions taken to improve the population's perceptions in these aspects will be key," he adds.