How Argentina's presidential hopefuls want to fix the economy

None of Argentina’s presidential candidates is expected to obtain 45% of the votes in this Sunday’s election or 40% plus a 10-percentage point advantage over the runner-up to avoid a runoff slated for November 19.

Libertarian Javier Milei is the frontrunner. Having been the winner of the August 11 primaries, with 30%, he’s now projected to get 35-40%. Center-left Sergio Massa, the current economy minister, would get 35% and center-right Patricia Bullrich, who was security minister in the previous Mauricio Macri administration, would get 25%, according to the latest polls.

Argentina is experiencing its sixth recession in a decade, and inflation has reached over 130%. All candidates propose vastly different solutions to the crisis.

Milei’s signature proposal is dollarizing the economy to combat inflation, following the examples of Ecuador, Panama and El Salvador.

He also proposes abolishing the central bank, while Bullrich and Massa want to reform the monetary authority.

Experts questioned the feasibility of Milei’s proposal and supreme court chief justice Horacio Rosatti said abolishing the peso would be unconstitutional. Argentina’s magna carta establishes that congress must create a federal bank that issues currency and defends its value.

Bullrich wants to lift capital controls, slash public spending and implement fiscal incentives for large investment projects. Massa proposes strengthening the current system by boosting agricultural, gas and lithium exports, reducing fiscal deficits, lifting restrictions on currency exchanges and provide tax relief for small companies.

On the infrastructure front, Milei vowed to replace public works with concessions to tackle corruption and improve performance. Construction chamber Camarco voiced opposition to that approach.

Also read Argentine construction chamber head not sold on proposal to abolish public works

Bullrich wants to reboot public-private partnerships. Attempts to implement PPPs during the Macri administration faltered due to financing problems. Overall, Bullrich wants to focus only on the most urgent public works. 

Massa would boost public investments across sectors to close social gaps. The 2024 budget bill, expected to be debated after the vote, includes US$15.1bn for investment projects, US$3.1bn of which for the public works ministry.

The candidates agree that mining is a growth engine. Although Milei’s program doesn’t mention related measures, he repeatedly said that he opposes mining export taxes. 

Bullrich is against nationalizing lithium and promotes sustainable mining, while Massa seeks to use mining export revenues to increase public resources. Massa is also committed to help gas and agriculture exports.

Argentina wants to become a major lithium exporter, and the candidates view the country as well-positioned despite the economic crisis and currency restrictions that complicate supply imports.

Also read: Some bloom amid much gloom: Argentina’s road ahead

Milei would deregulate the oil and gas sector and facilitate private investment in energy infrastructure. His party program barely mentions renewables. Bullrich would also support the hydrocarbons sector while at the same time backing renewables and an energy transition. Massa vowed to keep following the national climate change plan, which defines the energy transition as a keystone. 

Also read: Snapshot: Energy challenges, opportunities for Argentina’s next government

A spokesperson for Milei’s campaign told IT trade groups that he would simplify regulations, scrap taxes on services offered to low-income households and promote infrastructure buildout.

Bullrich vowed to repeal price controls and complete the 4G rollout, organize spectrum, improve broadband and create a plan to provide coverage in remote areas through the 450MHz band and satellites.

Massa’s program involves strengthening federal science and technology research council Conicet and increasing science and technology investment. Although his plan does not mention ICT directly, it highlights the growth potential of the knowledge economy. 

Also read Spotlight: The ICT proposals of Argentina's presidential hopefuls