Is building 3,000km of railways in Mexico in six years feasible?

Newly inaugurated Claudia Sheinbaum promised during her campaign and in her first speech as Mexico’s president that she intends to build 3,000km of passenger railways as part of her national development plan, which experts say could prove difficult.

The plan comprises eight routes to connect 20 cities, including the Mexico City-Pachuca project, the Mexico City-Nogales link and the Mexico City-Nuevo Laredo line, as well as expanding the Maya train to Puerto Progreso in Yucatán state. Work on the Mexico City-Pachuca project will start on Sunday, Sheinbaum said, according to daily Reforma. 

Some other projects she mentioned are the Mexico City-Querétaro, Querétaro-Hermosillo and Mexico City-Veracruz links.

The president took office on Tuesday for a six-year term with a 6% fiscal deficit, one of the largest in recent Mexican history. She has promised to not only keep social programs promoted during the previous Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration but expand them, in a move that could put a strain on the budget for other areas like infrastructure. 

A major effort to build passenger rail projects would require adapting them to handle freight too, the head of the Mexican construction chamber (CMIC) believes.

“They could definitely [become a burden], these projects are not self-sustainable when talking about passenger rail projects but that happens here and in every other country, that’s why it’s important to turn them into freight handling projects to generate productivity,” CMIC’s president Luis Méndez Jaled told BNamericas.

Méndez Jaled, like other infrastructure experts, believes that private participation is of the essence for the success of this plan. 

“There’s no sufficient amount for infrastructure, that’s why in the chamber we have suggested several public-private partnership mechanisms to promote these projects including associating new projects to existing concessions, taking advantage of all assets, service agreements, investment trusts, among others,” he said. 

“It’s complicated to have sufficient public funds for all projects, the participation of the private sector is essential,” said the founding partner of Alttrac consulting firm Benjamín Alemán, as quoted by Reforma. 

Alemán added that the six-year period that Sheinbaum’s administration will last “is very little time to execute a really good rail project of the magnitude that has been said, and recent history will confirm that with the Mexico City-Toluca train and the Maya train.”

Carlos Barrera, an expert in rail projects also consulted by the news outlet, said the Mexico City-Nuevo Laredo, Mexico City-Nogales and Mexico City-Veracruz rail links should be reassessed, because those investments could be better used to refurbish the northern highway network. 

On the other hand, the Mexico City-Pachuca line, Barrera added, is a much-needed project that will connect with Felipe Ángeles international airport (AIFA) and with other rail projects like the suburban train and the so-called insurgent train.