Is mining set to boom in Ecuador?

Several mining projects in advanced stages, two of which are expected to see the start of construction next year, raise expectations that mining products could, in the not-too-distant future, replace oil as Ecuador’s main export.

With only two industrial-scale mines currently in production but nearly a dozen projects moving forward, mining is expected to boom in Ecuador, said economist Alberto Acosta, an analyst at private consulting firm Grupo Spurrier, during a conference hosted by brokerage Mercapital Casa de Valores.

Last year, mining exports totaled around US$3.3bn and became the country's fourth largest export item, after oil, bananas and shrimp.

Between January and July, exports of mining products totaled US$1.875bn and for the full year are forecast to exceed the 2023 level.

“In less than a decade, mining will be Ecuador’s main export product and a huge source of wealth,” said Acosta.

The Fruta del Norte gold mine, owned by Canada’s Lundin Gold, and the Mirador copper mine owned by China’s EcuaCorriente, are the only large-scale mines in the South American country.

Construction of two medium-scale mines, Curipamba and La Plata, is expected to begin next year.

Curipamba, of Canadian companies Silvercorp and Salazar Resources, is a copper-gold project that also hosts zinc and silver, while Atico Mining’s La Plata is a copper-zinc project with interesting gold and silver grades.

The two initiatives represent combined investment of around US$400mn.

Another project expected to progress in 2025 is Dundee Precious Metals ' Loma Larga gold-silver asset, while the Warintza copper-molybdenum-gold project is shaping up to be one of the largest mines in Latin America, according to its operator, Canada's Solaris Resources, and is expected to show progress in 2026 and 2027.

Another initiative that could be developed in the next decade is the US$4.2bn Cascabel copper-gold project of Australia’s SolGold, which plans to begin mine construction in 2026.

Despite positive expectations, the mining sector in Ecuador still has to deal with several problems that could lengthen the time it takes for new mines to start operating, including weak institutions, a security crisis due to the penetration of organized crime, illegal mining, and constant opposition to the activity, especially from indigenous groups, some local communities and anti-mining activists.

In addition, a severe energy crisis is currently shaking the country and has led to power cuts of 10 hours a day, and there is uncertainty generated by the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for next February, since it is not known what direction the country will take.