New Petrobras CEO expected to emphasize growth in oil output – analyst

The next CEO of Brazil’s Petrobras, Magda Chambriard, is expected to emphasize the increase of oil production, Marcus D'Elia, a partner at consultancy Leggio Consultoria, told BNamericas. 

An engineer and former general director of local oil and gas regulator ANP, Chambriard was recently appointed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to replace Jean Paul Prates at the helm of the federal oil giant. 

She is a fierce advocate of exploration of the geologically promising but environmentally sensitive equatorial margin, deemed critical in the face of a possible decline in national output from 2030. 

Petrobras’ current business plan calls for a production target of 3.2Mboe/d (million barrels of oil equivalent per day) by 2028, compared with 2.8Mboe/d at present.

"Chambriard has experience in the area of oil exploration and production, having started her work at the ANP in that department. On the other hand, she has no previous experience in the area of renewable energy," said D'Elia. 

Petrobras’ low-carbon budget for 2024-28 includes US$5.2bn for wind and solar power. The company is currently assessing M&A opportunities in the renewable energy area. 

Oil workers unions – a key ally of Lula – want Petrobras to step up investments in the construction of platforms and support vessels in local shipyards as well as in refineries and fertilizer plants. 

For D'Élia, investing in new large refineries is not feasible today. 

"The best way forward today is to promote incremental improvements to the existing refining infrastructure," he said. 

This is basically what Petrobras intends to do, such as in the case of the modernization and expansion of the Abreu e Lima refinery. 

Meanwhile, the company is analyzing the repurchase of a stake in the Mataripe (formerly RLAM) refinery in Bahia state and the Ream (formerly Reman) plant in Amazonas. 

Another downstream investment already foreseen is in a lubricant factory at the Gaslub hub in Rio de Janeiro state, the tender for which is underway. 

The appointment of Chambriard is currently being analyzed by Petrobras' compliance committees.

FUEL PRICES 

Marcus D'Elia does not believe that the focus of the new management will be on changes to the pricing policy, whose new orientation was announced about a year ago. 

According to Leggio's study, over the last 12 months, Petrobras has been passing on international market fluctuations to gasoline and diesel prices with only a one-month delay and around 5% below the import parity price. 

"This is a sound commercial strategy, which allows the state-owned company to capture the gains from international price variations, while maintaining its market share in the domestic market and healthy competition with importers," said D'Elia.