Noboa stretches lead over González as Ecuador’s elections approach

Polls suggest that Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa is on track to win reelection on February 9, perhaps even in the first round.

According to the latest Ipsos poll, with data from January 20-24, Noboa leads with 50%, while his opponent Luisa González, an ally of former president Rafael Correa, is now some way behind with 34.6% of projected votes.

Based on data from January 30, Cedatos sees Noboa winning 48.3% and González 32.2%, while Informe Confidencial, using data from January 27-29, has Noboa at 47.8% and González at 37.2%.

To win in the first round, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority or at least 40% of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the second-place candidate.

However, “although the chances of a Noboa victory in the first round have increased, that is not the most likely scenario. While the number of undecided and null votes has decreased after the presidential debate, a second round is on the horizon,” Cristian Carpio, senior analyst at political risk consultancy Prófitas, told BNamericas.

Carpio said Noboa could win in the first round if an unforeseeable event – like a corruption scandal or weakening voter support – benefits him and hurts González. However, further shrinking of González’s base of support seems unlikely.

"The unpredictable can always change the scoreboard in one direction or another, but for now the picture is a second round, with the probability that Noboa will win it," said Carpio.

He added that Noboa could benefit from voter fatigue. “The weariness demonstrated by the population, which is eager for the elections to end – a hidden vote from people who see Noboa at the forefront and, in order to end the elections, give him their vote.”

Noboa’s success in consolidating his position could benefit his ADN party on election day.

Carpio said ADN could win the largest minority among the 151 national assembly members, followed by González’s Revolución Ciudadana.

If Noboa secures the largest minority, an effective coalition strategy could allow him to govern with greater ease, at least early in the four-year term.

ADN is polling between 25% and 41% and Citizen Revolution between 22% and 27%.

If Noboa wins the presidential race with a lead of at least seven points over González, Carpio said, ADN will almost certainly claim the largest minority in the assembly.