PV solar on course to become Brazil’s main electric power source

PV solar is on course to become Brazil’s main electric power source in terms of potency within the next 30 years, predicts the president of industry association Absolar, Rodrigo Sauiaia. 

According to watchdog Aneel, the country's total installed capacity currently stands at 195.7GW, comprising 103.2GW of large hydros, 46.5GW of thermal, 27GW of wind, 10.4GW of solar, 5.8GW of small hydros, 2GW of nuclear and 875MW of mini-hydros. 

Of the 175GW of new projects authorized by Aneel to connect to the grid in the coming years, almost 80% (135GW) are PV solar. 

Meanwhile, thermal and wind undertakings approved by the regulator total 8.5GW and 28GW, respectively. 

The figures do not include distributed generation, which totals approximately 24GW, over 90% of which is based on PV solar power and is likely to see a new investment expansion cycle in 2024.

"Our expectation is that, over time, the solar source will be able to advance and move up in the electricity supply positions," Sauaia told BNamericas. 

He said photovoltaic technology is also very present in isolated systems, which are not connected to the national grid and are mainly in the Amazon region, rural areas and islands.

"This segment, which plays an important role in the country, doesn't always appear explicitly in the statistics," Sauaia added.

POWER GENERATION

In the week of September 16-22, solar generation totaled 7,265MWa surpassing, for the first time in history, thermal generation (7,134MWa).   

In the following week (Sep. 23-29), solar was just below thermal with 6,239MWa compared with 6,520MWa for the latter. 

Such a scenario comes five months after solar generation exceeded nuclear, which is around 2,000MWa, and should remain so until the conclusion of the Angra 3 plant by 2030.      

But solar’s third place in Brazil’s power generation ranking (after hydro and wind power) depends on water reservoir conditions: the poorer these are, the more thermal units must be dispatched to assure supply, since solar is an intermittent source. 

According to grid operator ONS, three subsystems have estimated levels of stored energy above 60% for the end of October: south (95.8%), southeast/center-west (66.5%) and northeast (61.3%).

"October is the closing month of the typically dry period, which makes the results more relevant," ONS said in a recent statement.

The stored energy forecast for the northern subsystem at the end of the month is 57.6%.

Last week, hydro power generation totaled 46,303MWa, accounting for 66.7% of national electricity generation of 69,495MWa. 

It was followed by wind power with 9,542MWa. 

The situation is completely different from that experienced in the last week of August 2021, when thermal generation reached 34,172MWa compared with 32,721MWa of hydro generation, amidst the worst drought in 91 years.  

In that same week, solar generation was 953MWa.

 

Source: ONS

As solar power installed capacity grows – and mainly if coupled with energy storage systems – the gap related to thermal generation during dry periods could be reduced in the future.