Why Lula's foot-dragging on Venezuela could cost him dearly

Although Brazilian officials have voiced concern about post-election tensions in Venezuela, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hesitates to take crucial steps, creating risks on several fronts.

In a sign that Brazilian leadership is worried about Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's refusal to provide evidence of free and fair elections, Lula's main foreign affairs adviser, Celso Amorim, said during a broadcast interview that "I am very afraid that there could be a very serious conflict. I don't want to use the expression civil war, but I fear it very much. I think we have to work on an understanding."

He added: "This requires conciliation, and conciliation requires flexibility on all sides. Why did the US maintain violent sanctions when there was already a negotiation process? Why did the European Union maintain sanctions when it was invited to be an observer?”

Maduro declared himself the winner of Sunday's election, handing a defeat to opposition candidate Edmundo González. But various countries are contesting the result, alleging election fraud.

In this scenario, Lula faces criticism for not taking a stronger stance against his Venezuelan counterpart, especially since Brazil is a regional leader.

Although Lula has voiced some misgivings in recent weeks, he has generally avoided confrontation with Maduro and is still among the few regional leaders who have not recognized election fraud.

"Historically, international issues have little influence on the perception of Brazilian voters, but the Venezuela issue is different. There is an almost consolidated perception that there was fraud in the election there and if Lula doesn't take a stand this could affect his approval ratings here in Brazil, especially among his own voters who are sensitive to any threats to democracy and electoral processes," André Pereira César, a political analyst at Hold Consultoria, told BNamericas.

César also underlined major risks for the region.

"The presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico are talking to seek a joint solution for Venezuela. This is a clear sign that the escalation of tensions in Venezuela, if the situation evolves into a drastic scenario of civil war, will have a severe impact on the political environment and businesses throughout the region," he added.