Why President Boluarte's job is safe despite record-low approval ratings

The approval rating of Peru's presidency hit a 35-year low, as President Dina Boluarte's administration struggles to navigate a string of scandals and a sluggish economy.

Boluarte, who was the VP of ousted leftist president Pedro Castillo and took office in December 2022 after his impeachment, is only viewed favorably by 5% of the electorate, according to polling firm Datum, while 91% believe she's mismanaging the country. 

Her approval is even lower than former president Alan García's first term (1985-1990), a period marked by hyperinflation of over 7,600%.

Despite her rock-bottom popularity and a rash of scandals  – including the arrest of her brother, who is also her personal lawyer, for influence peddling – it is highly unlikely that Boluarte will be removed from office before the 2026 general election by a congress fearful of sparking a new wave of street protests and further pressuring the economy.

“I don't see a scenario in which they want to impeach her. There have already been six impeachment attempts that have not even progressed beyond the intermediate stage,” José Carlos Requena, political analyst and partner at consultancy Público, tells BNamericas.

Peruvian politics has been in constant crisis since the resignation of then-president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in March 2018, which led to a revolving door at the Palacio de Gobierno. 

President	Last approval rating	Date of departure
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski	19%	March 2018
Martin Vizcarra	54%	November 2020
Manuel Merino	-	November 2020
Francisco Sagasti	58%	July 2021
Pedro Castillo	27%	December 2022
Dina Boluarte	Below 10%*	in charge

*Approval below 10% from December 2023 to date
Source: Ipsos Apoyo

Beyond the widespread protests that marked Castillo's removal from power and the beginning of her administration, Boluarte has overseen an economy that is just starting to exit a recession, accusations of corruption against her and her inner circle such as the so-called 'Rolexgage,' and rising crime and poverty.

While viewing it as a distant possibility, Requena does not rule out a new impeachment process against Boluarte but only after April 2025, which is when the president can call for early elections.

"Once there is definitive certainty that elections are taking place, then there will be less 'commitments' between congress and the administration. Only then could you see a repeat of movements within the presidency. Today, both powers depend on having a good relationship with the other," adds the analyst.

The turning point for Peru's political landscape, and perhaps its economy, will be 2026, when general elections are expected to take place. Nevertheless, experts warn that an increasingly atomized political landscape is looming, similar to the crowded field that allowed surprise leftist contender Castillo to win in 2021. 

According to electoral authority JNE, 28 political parties are registered for future elections, and another 19 are in the registration process. 

Central bank head Julio Velarde expressed his concern at the atomization, arguing it will take time to winnow down the field to good candidates and parties.

In this context, few parties with power in congress would risk removing Boluarte from power and attempting to govern for a short period of time until 2026, lest they struggle under the spotlight and weaken their image even further before voters get their say in the ballot box.