Will Morena and its allies win a majority in Mexico's congress?

The governing Morena-PVEM-PT coalition looks like it could gain overwhelming control of Mexico's congress, after the current government published estimates that the three allied parties will win 73% of the available seats in the lower chamber.

If that estimate proves to be correct, the government would have a sufficient majority to push through constitutional amendments without having to worry about the opposition's votes. 

Interior minister Luisa María Alcalde appeared at President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) morning press conference on Wednesday to say that the ministry (Segob) estimates that the coalition could have 365 lawmakers of the 500 total, based on the preliminary election results. 

That figure, she said, considered both the number of votes each party won on Sunday and the plurinominal seats assigned through lists provided by parties and according to the proportion of votes obtained in the elections.

According to the preliminary results, the three governing parties obtained 54.2% of the total votes in the lower chamber, while the opposing PRI-PAN-PRD coalition won 30.9%, followed by the Movimiento Ciudadano party with 11.0%. 

“What we know today is that the coalition [Morena-PVEM-PT] will have a majority in congress, that will not change. The pending issue is whether that majority will be ‘simple’ or ‘qualified,’” Mariano Calderón, a partner at Mexican law firm Santamarina + Steta and an expert in constitutional litigation, told BNamericas.

“The difference is that, to reform any type of law you require only a simple majority [half plus one], and to reform the constitution you require a qualified majority [two thirds of the chamber],” he added.

The national electoral institute (INE) that oversaw the elections is currently carrying out a recount of votes by district, which Alcalde said should be completed by Saturday, followed by four days to receive appeals. 

“Based on those results, INE will assign seats to the parties,” said Calderón. “What should be analyzed, and will be ratified or modified by the electoral court, is an ‘overrepresentation’ issue.”

According to article 54 of the Mexican constitution, “no party can have a number of lawmakers that represents a percentage of the total in the chamber that exceeds the percentage of the votes it obtained by 8 points or more.” The estimate offered by Alcalde suggest that the coalition would have 19% overrepresentation. 

“We don't know the criteria that INE will apply [to article 54], whether that will be applied to the coalition as a whole or each party,” said Calderón. “Once the criterion is decided, the parties can contest it. The electoral court will have the last word.”

Former INE councilor Ciro Murayama was reported as saying by daily Reforma that the projections made during AMLO's morning press conference do not match the percentages of votes obtained by the parties.

“Morena and its allies obtained 54% of the votes for the lower chamber, but the minister of the interior said that they will have 73% of the chamber with 365 lawmakers. The constitution says that the overrepresentation limit is 8% and they intend to have more than double that allowed by law,” he said. 

Controversy arose at INE’s council session on Wednesday, where representatives of the opposition parties, such as Emilio Suárez of the PRI, complained about the issue and said that the formula to assign plurinominal seats was intended to favor minority and small parties, not the dominant ones. 

In response, INE councilor Uuc-Kib Espadas said that the rules to assign plurinominal seats may not be fair and could end up favoring the Morena-PVEM-PT coalition, but they are included in the constitution and could have been changed by the opposition when they held a majority. 

“They cannot claim that there is no direct proportionality when the PAN and PRI could have established it in the constitution since 2000, but didn't do so,” he was quoted as saying by Reforma. “The constitution that you wrote states something different [regarding plurinominal seats]. I don't agree but I'm not someone to judge the constitution and I vowed to defend it."

Calderón said that the process will take time, but must be decided before September 1, when the elected lawmakers are meant to take their seats. AMLO, who leaves office on October 1, would have one month to pass reforms through the coalition’s lawmakers. 

“He said that, during that month, he intends to pass the reforms he has already presented,” he said, “but added that he would discuss this with the president-elect [Claudia Sheinbaum]. We would have to see what kind of agreements they reach.”