Argentine oil heavyweight doubles down on Vaca Muerta, in pipeline talks

Argentina’s third-biggest oil producer, Vista Energy, revised up 2025 guidance and outlined its midstream capacity outlook.

Vista is focused on the Vaca Muerta unconventional hydrocarbons formation, where the bulk of upstream investment in Argentina is being deployed.

The company has set 2025 guidance at 95,000-100,000boe/d, up from guidance issued last year of 85,000boe/d.

The new guidance is roughly 40% higher than the 68,000-70,000boe/d expected for this year.  

Vista CEO Miguel Galuccio told the company’s Q3 results call that guidance for 2026 – set last year at 100,000boe/d – and beyond was being reworked.

“We continue to assess the impact that this updated [2025] guidance will have on our 2026 forecast,” Galuccio said.

“As a result, we’re withdrawing our 2026 guidance and we’re working on a new long-term plan to be presented to our investors during 2025.”

Upstream appetites are being whetted in Argentina by an easing of state control over the hydrocarbons sector and midstream work both underway and planned to increase oil dispatch capacity to export terminals.

Midstream

Vista expects to have 124,000b/d of dispatch capacity in place by the end of 2025, investors were told.

The bulk corresponds to the Oldelval duct, which links Vaca Muerta to maritime export facilities in Buenos Aires. Infrastructure is being expanded and due to enter service in February-April, ramping up Vista’s share to 75,000b/d from 44,000b/d.

A further 12,000b/d corresponds to the Otasa pipeline linking the Neuquén basin to Chile as well as the Vaca Muerta Norte feeder duct. Vista also has over 35,000b/d trucking capacity.

“The reality, I believe, is that there will be spare capacity in Oldelval,” Galuccio said. “When you look at the capacity put in place in Q1, there will most likely be spare capacity, so even though we talk about 35,000-37,000b/d of trucking, I think it’s unlikely we’ll use that full capacity in 2025.”

Vista, and other upstream firms, is also working with national hydrocarbons company YPF on the financial aspects of Vaca Muerta Sur, a pipeline to dispatch oil from the formation to a planned terminal on the coast of Río Negro province. 

“I think a lot of work has been done on that front and we’re confident that this project will take place,” said Galuccio. “We have not yet defined our working interest, but I think it will probably not be less than 10% for stage one.”

The first stage capacity is around 400,000b/d. Vaca Muerta Sur is in the tendering phase and officials have previously said the aim was to start carrying crude through the duct from 2H26.

“But for now, of course, our eyes are on the ball and the ball is the Oldelval expansion that we expect to have in Q1 next year,” the CEO said.

Production, prices, exports

Vista reported an increase in Q3 hydrocarbons production of 47% year-on-year to 72,825boe/d, driven by the connection of 51 new wells in the 12 months through September.

Oil production was 63,499b/d, up 53% year-on-year. The average oil price obtained was US$68.4/b, up 1% year-on-year. Over the quarter, 72% of oil was sold at the export parity price. 

Vista exported 3.5Mb oil in the quarter, or around 39,000b/d, up 57% year-on-year.

Of total oil production in Argentina, Vista accounts for 8%, behind Pan American Energy at 14% and YPF at 49%, according to data from local research firm Economía & Energía.

In terms of gas, Vista produced 1.42Mm3/d, up 16%, obtaining an average price of US$3.8/MMBTU (million British thermal units), up 14% year-on-year. Eight percent of volumes were exported at an average realized price of US$7.0/MMBTU.

Nationwide, in August oil production stood at 725,000b/d and gas output 153Mm3/d. 

Neuquén province, home to the majority of Vaca Muerta, has estimated that by 2030 Argentine oil output could potentially rise to more than 1.2Mb/d and gas production to over 200Mm3/d, all driven by Vaca Muerta producers.

ALSO READ: The 5 biggest Vaca Muerta oil and gas producers

Capex

Vista’s capex deployed in the quarter was US$369mn, doubling the US$181mn invested in 3Q23, with US$283mn corresponding to well work at Vaca Muerta, US$63.3mn installations, and US$22.6mn studies, IT projects and other initiatives.

M&A

Vista is competing for shale assets being offloaded by ExxonMobil, investors were told.

“We continue to be in the race,” Galuccio said. “If it comes to us, it will be welcome. If not, we move on and we have enough acreage in our hands to continue developing our future plans.”

Galuccio said Vista assets in Vaca Muerta would allow the company to potentially develop a second hub.

Vaca Muerta acreage Bajada del Palo Oeste and nearby blocks Aguada Federal and Bajada del Palo Este are Vista’s top assets, accounting for around 67,000boe/d last quarter. 

Bottom line

Vista posted Q3 adjusted net income of US$52.7mn, down from US$123mn a year earlier, citing factors including higher income tax expenses and higher depreciation, depletion and amortization. 

Revenue was US$462mn, up from US$303mn a year earlier.