Biden or Trump: What's next for US-LatAm policy

With just 40 days before the US election on November 3, much remains uncertain as to what, if any, real change might be in store for Latin America and the Caribbean should Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden win, or what ‘more of the same’ would be should incumbent Donald Trump claim a second term.

Some of the biggest questions concern US policy on sanctions against Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, aimed at the governments of what Trump’s former US National Security Advisor John Bolton dubbed “the troika of tyranny”. 

Addressing Venezuela in a recent quasi-debate held by the Wilson Center, two former White House officials, one who worked for Biden in the Obama administration and the other in the Trump administration, indicated that both Biden and Trump would likely re-evaluate the current, harsh restrictions on Venezuela in an effort to bring the Maduro regime back to the negotiating table.

TRUMP WANTS A TOUCHDOWN

Pointing to almost 20 years of “failed or weak or anemic policy on Venezuela,” former Trump advisor Juan Cruz said that the US president’s efforts may not have yet achieved the desired regime change, the administration has worked to “muster determination, bring multilateralism to the forefront, work with allies, push back on a regime hard… and ultimately make [its] objectives clear – the restoration of full democracy in Venezuela.”

“Gone are the days of appeasement, and I think mixed messages and confusion… and I think the administration would be looking for a second [term] to bring the football across the line,” said Cruz.

While it’s “very premature” to speculate on what Biden might do in terms of sanctions, Biden would use them “as a tool, not a strategy,” according to Juan S. González, former Special Advisor for the Americas to then-Vice President Biden from 2013 to 2015 and previously that Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs.

“Unilateral sanctions have never in their history brought regime change,” said González, adding, “Joe Biden has a saying... ‘You never back a person back into a corner where their only way is over you.’”

“I think what we need to do is find a way to pressure the regime back to the negotiating table with the opposition as equals,” he said, noting that US needs to let the Venezuelans lead on how they want to get there, and under Biden, they would have US support.

‘ROOM TO REASSESS’ 

However, Cruz did indicate that the Trump administration is looking to adjust sanctions. 

“We’ve sanctioned everything but Venezuela’s oxygen and the sun… if we could figure out how to do that, we’d sanction that too,” said Cruz. “But we have sort of been heavy-handed on the sanctions regime, and I think there’s room to reassess that.“ 

“My own particular view is that whatever you do to reassess, it’s an opportunity to engage the regime in a quid pro quo,” said Cruz, who is considered to have been instrumental in defining the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela’s deepening economic and political crisis during his stint as US National Security Council Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs from May 2017 through August 2018. 

Cruz was replaced by Cuban hardliner Mauricio Claver-Carone, who was recently propelled to the IADB presidency despite dissent in several LAC countries, including Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Peru.

“I wouldn’t single out any one sanction in particular, but… if you were inclined to review your sanctions toolbox, you engage the regime eye-to-eye and offer it an exchange for something that’s important to you,” said Cruz. 

“This could be an opportunity,” he added, “But my own view is that there isn’t that much more to sanction, and there’s probably some room to release the tension on the reins a little bit.” 

CAN’T TURN BACK TIME

One of Trump’s hardest moves in the region has been to reverse the “normalization” of US relations with Cuba under Barack Obama, fulfilling early in his presidency a campaign promise to the community of Cubans in south Florida, an all-important electoral battleground. 

“Will Biden go back to the Obama era policy?” posited González, “[Biden running mate, Senator Kamala] Harris has said, ‘No’. We will not because today’s context is very different.”

For González, “The idea that we are going to… invest the two most valuable commodities that a president has – time and political capital – to just go back to where we were with Cuba doesn’t understand the current context.” 

The former Biden advisor added, that two things that would be addressed in Cuba are travel issues and remittances, “making sure those remittances don’t end up in the pocket of the regime.”

NICARAGUA

“On the issue of Nicaragua, it’s tough,” said Cruz on the regime of controversial Nicaragua President Daniel Ortega. “For too many years, we’ve known that the Ortegas have been able to perpetuate themselves in power through a lot of machinations and electoral trickery and the subjugation of the formal opposition parties.”

“What we’ve done subsequently is to draw a line, create hardship, isolate the Nicaraguan regime and eliminate business as usual of tolerating bad behavior,” said Cruz. “And while, again, this is not something you can claim as victory, because we aren’t there yet, they’re on the right path.” 

BOLSONARO AND LÓPEZ OBRADOR

Looking to the rest of the region, Cruz emphasized the strong affinity between Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, as well as, to everyone’s surprise, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). 

 “I wouldn’t just discard the affinity that exists between these two presidents,” said Cruz, noting the Trump administration’s success in overcoming what have previously been challenging relationships with the two largest economies in Latin America.

González, who was also US National Security Council Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs from 2011 to 2013, stressed Biden’s experience and track record as an on-the-ground, engaged US leader who has been a “physical presence” in Latin America and the Caribbean.

BRAZIL 

Cruz also said that while Trump himself may not have visited Brazil, there has been a strong presence and activity among top administration officials visiting the country, including Vice President Mike Pence and very recently Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Pointing to the solid rapport built between Trump and Bolsonaro’s teams, “The situation is ripe for really important decisions to move forward between the two countries,” Cruz said.

“I don’t think that’s been fully exploited, but I do know that the Brazilians themselves have been working on an agenda that might prove absolutely compatible to [a Trump] administration,” Cruz added, underlining that this agenda includes “issues of defense and military cooperation, and logistics and space.”

With Mexico, Cruz again pointed to the consistently strong US-Mexico relationship, even through AMLO taking over and the success of that cooperation in accomplishing the USMCA trade agreement.

In a second term, Cruz said, “What's next I think that, for the Trump administration, they’ll still be seized on two issues: the issue of immigration particularly coming from Central America, and secondly law and order and issues of combating narco-trafficking and the ravages of the failure of the drug war and what it means for the US population.”

González took issue with Cruz’s depiction of the bilateral relationship, as ignoring “disturbing trends” in Mexico, citing for example how US immigration policy has generated “shantytowns” on the Mexico side of the border, with migrants victimized by drug cartels.

He recalled a depiction of Trump as “an arsonist-firefighter,” taking credit for allegedly resolving the crisis on the border that “he himself created.”

Biden, González said, would strive to be “the grown-up in the room” on tactics used to address migration, adding, “I don’t think you’re going to see Joe Biden threaten to close down the border on a whim.”

ENERGY AND CORRUPTION 

During the discussion, González was also asked how Biden would look to work with Mexico and Brazil on climate change, an issue at the top of his agenda, citing criticism of the Bolsonaro administration on the devastating fires seen in the Amazon rainforest, as well as Mexico’s renewed focus on traditional hydrocarbons.

“Countries like Mexico and Brazil matter globally for US interests,” said González. “Whether or not we agree with them or share the same ideological perspective… they are incredibly relevant." 

“Climate change is going to be something going hand-in-hand with the vice president’s economic agenda,” he said. “For those countries, regardless of whether it’s Brazil or Mexico, that are ready to show leadership on this issue, to listen to science, [those countries] are going to be welcome to the table. They’re going to be our partners.”

OPPOSITES ON CORRUPTION 

The experts were also asked about corruption in Central America and concerns raised recently by authoritarian actions taken by El Salvador President Nayib Bukele since the start of the pandemic.

Cruz stressed that the Trump administration has developed an “extremely positive” relationship with all Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) with “exceptional” alliances with their leaders. 

Again, migration would be Trump’s main priority in the subregion during a second term, said Cruz, adding that the US and those countries would continue to work on “rough spots.”  

Beyond immigration, he said, “Another issue that might come up would be security and China, and much less so for this administration, corruption.” 

Conversely, “For Biden, combating corruption is central,” said González, adding that whether this involves threats to democracy or funding of criminal gangs in the Northern Triangle, “at the center is corruption, which has allowed a lot of these things grow and blossom under the Trump administration, which does not care about combating corruption in Latin America.” 

Biden, he said, would restore funding cuts made under Trump and actively work to defend prosecutors in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, who are “dead men walking” without protection.

Cruz said Bukele is treading a fine line and that the US is watching. “He’s already got chalk on the cleat… He will run crosswise to any administration if our worst fears come true.”  

Cruz added, “I really wish he’d take caution,” adding he would garner the benefit of having additional choices by widening his circle of advisors.