Spotlight: Chile's power demand forecast for 2021 and beyond

Chile’s power demand is expected to rise by 2.25% every year for the next 20 years, exceeding pre-pandemic forecasts.

According to the latest annual forecast by energy commission CNE, power demand is expected to reach 111,174GWh in 2040, a 56% increase over 2020 demand of 71,253GWh.

BNamericas with CNE data

Despite the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, CNE’s updated forecasts are higher than those made in 2019, when demand was expected to rise 2.10% every year through 2039. 

Demand was lower than expected last year, reaching 71,253GWh of consumption, 0.5% below the 71,658GWh forecast at the beginning of that year. 

However, in 2021 demand is now expected to rise to 77,787GWh, 6% higher than the 2019 forecast of 73,234GWh, mainly because unregulated demand is expected to grow much faster than previously forecast as the economy recovers from a weak 2020.

Regulated demand, meanwhile is expected to grow more slowly in the short term and begin from a lower base, as it was more impacted by the pandemic.

In the long term, however, CNE expects the regulated segment to grow 2.28% on average per year and the unregulated segment 2.23%.

Among the biggest drivers of power demand are Chile’s large industrial consumers, mainly the country’s sprawling copper mining industry in the north.

In recent years, there has been a growing trend of large industrial and commercial customers switching over from the country’s regulated segment to the unregulated segment, where they can seek tailor-made solutions.

For example, large mining companies have been seeking certified renewable supply, which they can contract directly from generation companies to secure green label certification for their final products.

BNamericas with CNE data

The CNE’s power demand forecast informs the regulator’s decision to call for tenders to supply power distributors. Chile is set to conduct a new auction this year, as BNamericas reported previously.

The auction process will award a supply of 2,310GWh/y of new generation that must come online in 2026 and will last for 15 years. Proposals by private players must be submitted on May 28 and the new supply will be awarded on June 22.