Venezuela Election: Fraud, firearms and free soup

He has been dubbed a traitor by the left-wing constituency he once represented and a Trojan horse by leery conservatives.

But despite fomenting suspicions on both sides of the political spectrum, Henri Falcón (pictured) could offer the best hope for change – flickering as it may be – when crisis-weary Venezuelans cast their ballots in the May 20 presidential vote.

Falcón is one of four opposition candidates seeking to unseat deeply unpopular incumbent Nicolás Maduro in an election that has been widely denounced as rigged even before polling stations open. 

The former Lara state governor and retired army sergeant plans to tackle hyperinflation and severe product shortages by replacing the bolivar currency with the US dollar, decentralizing some public services and raising the minimum wage to US$75 a month from less than US$2 today.

A recent poll by Datincorp showed Falcón had 34% of the intended vote compared to Maduro's 22%, while another by Datanalisis had Falcón leading by six percentage points.

However, only a fraction of his supporters are likely to vote, according to analysts, amid widespread apathy and an expected boycott.

Rival candidate Javier Bertucci, an evangelical pastor, could also erode Falcón's support. Bertucci's free-market proposals and exuberant campaign rallies – which offer free soup, jumping castles and live hip-hop shows – are beginning to strike a chord with some voters, according to polls.

"The odds are certainly against Falcón," Julia Buxton, a Venezuela expert at the Central European University, told BNamericas. 

"But he can turn these enormous disadvantages to his benefit. He cuts a politically lonely figure, but not being associated with the disorganized and fractious main opposition alliance can be a plus. 

"Falcón might prosper if there is a large turnout - if disgruntled Venezuelans seize the opportunity of a peaceful method for forcing a change of government. In the most optimistic scenario, a drubbing for Maduro may convince senior officials and military that defeat cannot be covered up, with the election offering an exit point."

Falcón, 56, earned the wrath of socialists in 2010 when he split with the regime of then-president Hugo Chávez.

In 2013, he was the campaign chief for the coalition Democratic Unity (MUD) party. But he broke ranks again in February when he ignored an MUD decision to shun the election and launched his own candidacy instead. 

In addition to doubts about Falcón's swinging allegiance, some believe he is collaborating with Maduro by running a bogus campaign to give legitimacy to the vote. Falcón has repeatedly denied the claims. 

According to Latin American political analyst and author Andrés Oppenheimer, Maduro is likely to fashion election results that show him beating Falcón by a narrow margin.

"Maduro hopes that a tight election will give at least some countries an excuse to continue doing business with his increasingly isolated dictatorship," Oppenheimer wrote in the Miami Herald. 

Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan expert at Rice University, believes "pervasive electoral abuses" by the government and likely vote-counting fraud point to another six-year term for Maduro. 

"However, there is a slim chance that if [Falcón] manages to energize the opposition voters in the next two weeks and wins by a large margin, the military would force Maduro to concede, given that Falcón is considered as a safe transition by some of the chavistas," Monaldi told BNamericas in an emailed response to questions. 

According to Monaldi, a Maduro victory would be widely rejected by the international community. Only Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua would recognize the result among Latin American nations, he said, adding that Russia and China are also unlikely to oppose a chavismo triumph. 

Conversely, the US and Canada would almost certainly tighten sanctions in the event that Maduro wins, according to Monaldi, with the European Union, Argentina and Chile possibly following suit. 

"Most likely the economy will continue to collapse [after the election]," the fellow in Latin American energy policy said. "Only if there is some type of government change, a lifting of sanctions and debt restructuring, can the economy start to improve. If Maduro stays, sanctions and full blown default are highly likely."

Maduro, for his part, told followers at a campaign event in Vargas state this week that he "doesn't give a damn" if the US and EU refuse to recognize the election. 

He added that he will personally resort to taking up arms if his socialist party is defeated. 

"If someday a government was in power that intended to hand over [our] riches, I would be the first one to raise the alarm, grab a gun and start an armed revolution," he said.