Water, security crises set to dominate Uruguay’s 2024 presidential race

Uruguay’s 2024 presidential race is shaping up to revolve around questions about the ruling center-right coalition's handling of the drought, as well as internal rifts, corruption and public security.

The drought is severely affecting Montevideo’s potable water services, providing an opening for left-wing Frente Amplio (FA), which governed between 2005 and 2020.

“FA’s president [Fernando Pereira], as well as its lawmakers and the governors of Montevideo [Carolina Cosse] and Canelones [Yamandú Orsi] provinces, have appeared regularly in the media, providing criticisms and alternative perspectives to those of the government, clearly presenting themselves as a political change option,” Universidad de La República political sciences professor Daniel Buquet told BNamericas. 

Representatives of Frente Amplio repeatedly highlight that President Luis Lacalle Pou scratched the water portfolio left by his predecessor in favor of the Neptuno project.

This lack of continuity is being cited as a source of water scarcity, but the opposition also highlights that since Neptuno involves private investment, it disregards the results of a 2004 referendum, which established water as a public good.

Although the election is still over a year away, FA polls above 40%, even though the party has been popular before the water crisis, Buquet said.

CRIME

Lacalle Pou’s 2019 campaign had a heavy security focus, but the crime problem has gotten worse. 

“Besides public unease, homicide numbers began to increase after the pandemic, reaching levels similar to the last year of the previous administration. This created doubts on the government’s capacity to obtain positive results regarding one of its main electoral promises,” according to Buquet.

Additionally, presidential security chief Alejandro Astesiano was handed a four-year prison sentence earlier this year for leading a criminal organization that provided fake birth certificates for Russians so they could get Uruguayan passports.

“While that case is now in the background, the continuity of some of those investigations is putting the government in a bind on its last stretch,” Buquet said, alluding to claims that Astesiano also facilitated spying on opposition figures.

INTERNAL TENSIONS

Although Lacalle Pou could rely on center-right and far-right allies to pass key laws, relations between coalition members have cooled down in recent months. 

“The relation between the president and far-right party Cabildo Abierto has significantly deteriorated, after the president demanded the resignation of the housing minister [wife of Cabildo Abierto leader Guido Manini Ríos] after it became known that housing units were being supplied irregularly,” Buquet said.

Manini Ríos implied that the government was conspiring against him.

Another major coalition player, center-right Colorado party, maintains good relations with Lacalle Pou, but as the elections approach, the party seeks to distance itself from the government, Buquet said. 

“Inevitably, the parties in the coalition will go to the first electoral round in 2024 separately, despite their claims of wanting to continue the coalition if they win,” he said. Yet, the parties may still unite again, according to Buquet.

He said the most likely candidates in the internal party primaries slated for June 30 were the FA’s Cosse and Orsi, with the latter at a slight advantage. 

For ruling Partido Nacional, presidency secretary Álvaro Delgado is the frontrunner, while the party’s Montevideo chapter head Laura Raffo trails far behind. 

Buquet also expects a third challenger, either vice-president Beatriz Argimón or senator Jorge Gandini, representing the party’s more progressive wing. 

No viable leaders have emerged in the Colorado party, while Manini Ríos, who obtained 11.5% in the first round in 2019, will undoubtedly run again, Buquet said.