What’s at stake in Uruguay’s elections

Over the coming months the focus of political reporting in Latin America will largely be on Argentina, where voters head to the polls in October. 

Pundits and analysts will follow closely the battle between incumbent President Mauricio Macri and the rest of the pack, led by Alberto Fernández and his electoral copilot, the populist former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Argentina’s neighbor Uruguay is also holding presidential elections in October, and while the country will likely receive less coverage, there is nevertheless a fair amount at stake on the political front.

Chief among the issues is the dominance of the Frente Amplio coalition, which has been in power since 2005 and could retain the reins for another term, according to Alejandro Chafuen, managing director, international, at US think-tank Acton Institute.

“The key issue, I believe, is the continuity of the left-wing coalition in government and putting an end to that cycle,” Chafuen told BNamericas.

The center-left Frente Amplio is currently led by President Tabaré Vásquez (pictured), who was also in office 2005-10.

In June’s primaries, voters selected their preferred candidate as well as their preferred party.

Frente Amplio secured the second-highest tally after the center-right Partido Nacional.

Daniel Martínez will run under the banner of Frente Amplio while Luis Lacalle Pou will campaign for Partido Nacional. Center-left/centrist Ernesto Talvi will represent Partido Colorado.

If no candidate receives a majority in the first round in October, a runoff will take place in November.

“It’s being framed as the conservatives or free-market side versus the socialist side,” said Chafuen. “So there’s potential for big polarization in the second round. I don’t think anyone would win in the first round.”

Crime is also a central debate topic, with former general Guido Manini Ríos – who some have compared to Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro – campaigning on this issue. Ríos’s party, Cabildo Abierto, secured the fourth-highest number of votes in the primaries.

“I think crime and security is a major issue and we are seeing the rise of retired general Manini Ríos, who is making that topic the key of his campaign,” said Chafuen.

The primaries also saw the rise of businessman Juan Sartori – who lost to Lacalle Pou in Partido Nacional's contest.

“Uruguayan politics is still resistant to change and innovation,” Sartori was quoted as saying by local media outlet LaRed21. “It still struggles to incorporate new options.”

This was echoed by Chafuen, who does not foresee, at this point, any major policy changes in a post-election Uruguay required to drive the economy forward, citing a “continuation of mediocracy.”

A central task for whoever wins in October will be spurring the economy, which has been losing steam, with a major factor being sluggish private investment. 

Uruguay, with solid public institutions largely respected by its citizens, is one of Latin America’s most stable countries. 

“Over the last decade and a half, Uruguay’s economy has been resilient—helping to reduce poverty and raise incomes to one of the highest levels in the region. But recently growth has moderated, and the country faces the challenges of low investment, declining employment, and an uncertain external climate,” said the IMF.

“Uruguay stands out in Latin America for being an egalitarian society and for its high income per capita, low level of inequality and poverty and the almost complete absence of extreme poverty,” the World Bank said. 

Uruguay’s deficit is growing, however. The IMF has urged the country to sharpen its focus on reforming its pension system and state-owned enterprises to help control expenses and debt.

Average life expectancy at birth has increased by five years since 1996 and is expected to continue rising. Government spending corresponding to social security institute BPS rose to 32.4% of GDP in 2018 from 28.1% in 2010.

Picture credit: Bernd Von Jutrczenka / DPA / dpa Picture-Alliance