Would Latin America-US relations change under a Biden administration?

Would Latin America-US relations be strengthened if Joe Biden beats Donald Trump in November?

According to one international relations expert, the US will remain an important partner but a tighter embrace appears unlikely, although Biden would adopt a more traditional style of negotiating.

While bilateral relations between the US and most Latin American nations have never fizzled out – and Mexico blinks brightly on Washington’s radar – overall interest in the region waned post 9/11 and has not recovered despite efforts during the Bush and Obama years to rekindle them.

In terms of Latin America policy, Trump targeted immigration and trade as part of his election strategy, a focus that will likely remain.

“In the end there is just not a great affinity for Latin America, simply because there are not many interests for the US in Latin America,” Peter Hakim, president emeritus and senior fellow at US think tank the Inter-American Dialogue, told BNamericas.

“There’s no interest, no security interest in Latin America, very little political interest and so what you have at the end is an economic interest. And with Latin American countries falling behind, with deteriorating economies…

“Basically, Latin America is a very second-tier interest of the US aside from Mexico.”

A strengthening of Latin America’s sputtering economic powerhouses, however, may whet appetites in US political and business spheres for a closer embrace of the region. Increased productivity levels, better education and healthcare, along with lower trade barriers, would support this.

“If Mexico and Brazil and Argentina were doing well economically, you would see a very different approach to Latin America,” said Hakim, who will speak on Monday during a webcast on US-Latin America relations hosted by Fundación Chilena del Pacífico, an organization tasked with supporting Chile’s economic insertion into the Pacific basin.

“I can’t see any convincing interests that the US has in Latin America except, at this point – and what Trump has been pushing pretty hard on – the question of China’s increasing presence and influence.”

CHINESE PRESENCE 

Over recent years China has sharpened its focus on resource-rich South America, particularly Chile and Brazil, wielding soft power. The Asian powerhouse is the biggest consumer of their commodities while the US is a major buyer of Latin American manufactured goods.

The common narrative is that the US has receded – notwithstanding Mexico – and China has filled the void in the form of stronger trade and investment, opportunities snapped up by Latin American countries eager to improve their economies. Following the financial crisis of 2008, Chinese capital and appetite for commodities helped the region power ahead.

“South America is very much shifting toward Asia,” said Hakim, who was president of the Inter-American Dialogue from 1993-2010.

US officials are concerned about the Asian giant’s growing presence in the region but lack tools to offset this influence.

“Not only do they not have any tools to really do very much but I don’t think they’re going about it in any effective way at this point,” said Hakim, adding that US political pressure on Latin America nations is unlikely to be effective given the strong trade links they have with China.

GREEN ECONOMY, ENERGY METALS

Latin America was already underperforming prior to the coronavirus crisis, which has weakened economies further and lumbered many with bigger debt piles.

One bright spot for commodity exporters is a forecast uptick in demand for energy metals, driven by factors such as greater adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy drives.

Biden, if elected, would likely command the US back into the climate change battle.

“I think one of his first acts would probably be to rejoin the Paris Agreement and I think another quick step will be to join those who are critical of Brazil’s management of its Amazon forests,” said Hakim.

CUBA, VENEZUELA

“Those are going to be two very, very important early steps. The third early step is going to be more of an opening toward Cuba. They might not go as far as Obama goes until the Cubans make some agreements to make some changes…

“I think Biden will probably try to find ways to address, more directly, the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, even at the cost somewhat of doing less to push [leader Nicolás] Maduro out.”