A test of leadership: Can Ecuador's president rise to the challenge of reelection?

Since taking office last November, Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa has had to face a series of problems, including the violence associated with drug trafficking and organized crime, an inherited economic crisis and growing political opposition in the national assembly.

Looking ahead to Ecuador's next presidential election, scheduled for February 2, 2025, Noboa's chances of reelection look likely to hinge on how he handles the country's energy and security crises and the economic problems. That will be no easy task given Ecuador's strained public finances, high unemployment and underemployment, turbulent politics and widespread corruption.

The president has already adopted two unpopular measures in his short mandate: increasing VAT by three percentage points and establishing monthly hikes in gasoline prices, which will likely cost him votes. However, in his favor, the power of social and union groups has been weakened due to internal disagreements, as well as that of the indigenous movement represented by Conaie, which is traditionally opposed to measures such as these.

BNamericas speaks with Cristian Carpio, senior analyst at political risk consultancy Prófitas, to find out what he thinks of the challenges facing Noboa, the issues that might influence voters and his strategy for the election.

BNamericas: How might the energy and political problems affect President Noboa's plans to win the February election?

Carpio: Everything will depend on the decisiveness of the actions taken. It's essential to consider how they are managed and the outcomes in four areas: the energy crisis, the security crisis, the economic problems, and the potential conflicts of interest between cabinet members and their companies.

The energy crisis is a complicated structural problem and has a more significant impact than other areas, because it affects the productive sector, traders and the general public. If the blackouts return, that will badly weaken the president ahead of the elections.

On the economic issue, one fundamental aspect is employment, which goes hand in hand with oil production, with the revenues that the country obtains. Although it recently moved forward with a significant disbursement from the IMF, which is providing it with some room to breathe economically, it's not enough.

The increases in gasoline prices could generate anger, not at the same level as the protests in 2019 or 2022, but it could still lead to some discontent. However, the government managed the issue well by implementing a mechanism that primarily satisfied groups in the transportation sector through the economic compensation they will receive. 

As diesel prices haven't increased, there shouldn't be an inflationary effect, but it's foreseeable that there will be speculation with various products.

BNamericas: What are the conflicts of interest you mention?

Carpio: The president's connections with business groups, for example his relationship with the Nobis group and his own companies.

Editor's note: Nobis is one of the most important investment companies in Ecuador, founded and chaired by Isabel Noboa, aunt of the president. 

It has been said that 52 government officials in the country have shares in different companies and that is in addition to the case of the Olón real estate project, which has a significant impact on the government.

Editor's note: The biggest shareholder in Olón is Lavinia Valbonesi, Noboa's wife. The project was halted after complaints of environmental impacts due to felling of mangroves in a protected area.

All of these issues can work against Noboa.

Being a government that favors the business sector, the negative impacts may be stronger since one of the government's main pillars has been the fight against corruption, especially to capture the anti-Correa vote [those who oppose candidates backed by former president Rafael Correa].

BNamericas: Are there other issues that could influence the election?

Carpio: Yes, it should also be considered that a key issue in the political scenario will be the investigations into corruption and drug trafficking issues that the attorney general's working on.

There's still a long way to go in cases such as Metastasis [a government corruption investigation]. It will also be necessary to see if the cellphone information from former vice president Jorge Glas comes to light, among other issues.

Likewise, it will be necessary to see who the Correa movement and the other political blocs designate as candidates.

BNamericas: Eight months before the elections, is the government significantly weakened?

Carpio: While it's true that the president is significantly weakened, we also need to take into account that the opposition has also been affected. Additionally, there's a leadership crisis within the opposition, including the Correa movement which has its own problems, and that benefits Noboa's government.

BNamericas: Could the opposition to the government in the national assembly be a deciding factor for Noboa?

Carpio: It's important to bear in mind that the government is apparently seeking to focus its attacks on the assembly and position it as the only enemy. The assembly tends to be the political body that is most attacked politically, generating the most discontent; therefore, the government seeks to present it as the sole enemy.

The three most important opposition forces [led by Correa's movement] have joined forces, giving political capital to the government – the anti-Correa vote.

In recent weeks, the government has also primarily targeted the Correa movement, which is a strategy because Noboa came to power with a rather soft vote, as an outsider. On one hand, he has the anti-Correa vote, but he also has votes from the center, center-left and young voters. However, most of those voters aren't loyal to the government. It's a soft vote.

BNamericas: Will the anti-Correa vote be enough for Noboa to win reelection?

Carpio: He wants that vote to have a stronger electoral base, to have a more solid electorate, even though hard anti-Correa sentiment is between 15% and 20% of voters. Based on the anti-Correa vote, he aims to capture the soft vote, which would allow him to advance to a presidential runoff.

However, the opposition also has the ability to politically wear down the government. The current national assembly is much more active. It will focus on overseeing government officials, including the president himself, and will engage in a political struggle to wear him down.

Noboa can also work to weaken the opposition, and his effectiveness will depend on potential emerging leadership. The government aims to position the vote as old politics versus new politics; old politicians versus new politicians; new politics versus party politics.

Undoubtedly, this is a game where everyone is weakened. The political forces are debilitated and that could create space for an outsider, although it's not clear who that might be.