Ecuadoran power struggle: Energy crisis and political fires line the road to February election

Ecuador’s political landscape faces significant turbulence as the country approaches a general election in four months. 

Amid an energy crisis and a series of fires in Quito, President Daniel Noboa’s administration struggles to maintain political capital. The recent declaration of a state of emergency, particularly for the capital, signals the government’s attempt to regain control and prevent political destabilization.

Despite the government's efforts, dissatisfaction is growing due to perceived inaction and mismanagement, especially in addressing energy shortages fueled by the country's worst drought in more than half a century. 

The political tension is compounded by security concerns as incidents of violence linked to organized crime loom large over the country's electoral process.

BNamericas speaks with Cristian Carpio, senior political risk analyst at consultancy Prófitas, about the political situation and what the country can expect in the lead-up to the February vote.

BNamericas: What is the current political situation leading up to the February elections?

Carpio: The government has lost significant political capital amid the energy crisis.

Following the fires that ravaged Quito and the statements from both the central government and Quito mayor Pabel Muñoz claiming they were deliberate attacks, it’s clear that President Noboa is focused on securing and maintaining control of the capital.

This’s why he included Quito in the recently declared state of emergency for several provinces, aiming to prevent chaos and, above all, avoid any potential political destabilization.

October is typically a turbulent month that has challenged previous governments. Although we’re not in a situation where large-scale strikes or violent protests are expected, October holds symbolic importance, and Noboa’s government is attempting to create its own political symbolism.

BNamericas: Has the government’s political capital diminished due to inaction?

Carpio: It’s a structural issue caused by both a lack of action and inadequate management of the energy crisis.

The government has concentrated its efforts on the coastal region, and polls show significant support in certain coastal sectors. Noboa won the election with support from provinces in the highlands, yet Quito has felt somewhat neglected by the government. There hasn’t been a robust communication strategy or significant government projects in the country’s capital.

The declaration of a state of emergency for Quito is also an attempt to give the city a sense of security, aiming to restore some confidence among its residents. Even though there is no curfew in the city, the increased presence of military and public forces on the streets instills a sense of safety, which is generally well-received by the public.

It’s not a comprehensive solution, but it’s a politically novel approach that could help rebuild trust among a portion of the population that feels abandoned by Noboa’s government.

BNamericas: What’s your view of the recent fires?

Carpio: There was a lack of preventive measures from the municipality and, to a lesser extent, from the government.

Secondly, I believe the fires were premeditated with political objectives. Setting fires at the same time in various locations is designed to overwhelm response capabilities and create chaos, and this goes beyond mere pyromania.

Additionally, there was a lack of intelligence to prevent these acts. The fires exposed the city’s structural weaknesses in terms of both political and emergency response.

BNamericas: What can we expect by the end of the year?

Carpio: The major challenge remains the energy crisis, which is the most politically impactful issue. The withdrawal of energy supplies from Colombia complicates the government’s short-term ability to manage the problem.

While a large segment of the population understands the drought, the lack of foresight regarding power outages, schedule changes and the impact on the productive sector generates discontent and political wear for the government.

The energy crisis will likely have a greater political impact than security issues.

In the coming months, we will see political accusations from the opposition toward the government and vice versa.

There will likely be security issues, particularly violent incidents, aimed at weakening or damaging the government or certain political groups, as organized crime has played a role in the political context for many years.

It’s important to remember that last year, a sitting mayor, a mayoral candidate, and a presidential candidate were assassinated. Similar incidents cannot be ruled out.

I wouldn’t be surprised if December becomes more complex, with the government resorting to high-impact actions, such as deploying the military in the streets, advancing discussions on extradition and arresting dangerous criminals.

BNamericas: Polls continue to show Noboa and Luisa González as the frontrunners for the election.

Carpio: That’s correct, but there are some interesting points. For instance, support for correísmo [the political movement associated with former president Rafael Correa] remains at a solid 25%. While support for their candidate has grown, it’s been marginal.

Other political figures haven’t gained traction either. Noboa continues to lead in many polls, remaining the frontrunner, partly due to a leadership crisis and a lack of legitimacy among the other candidates.

I believe correísmo is still struggling. While it retains strong support that will likely get it to a second round, its political capital hasn’t necessarily improved, and widespread distrust toward its candidate remains.

Another important factor is that Noboa’s core support has grown. The leadership crisis and the wear and tear of political forces have also worked in Noboa’s favor to some extent.

At this point, the contest is primarily between Noboa and González, and we’ll need to see how Noboa performs in addressing the energy crisis and security issues going forward.

For now, I think it’s unlikely that a new outsider candidate will emerge.

BNamericas: If Noboa continues to lead the polls, could this translate into strong legislative support for his political movement?

Carpio: Recent polls show the legislative bloc supporting the president in the assembly, which is one way to measure core support, is between 19% and 20%. In some polls, it ranks slightly above correísmo, while in others, it’s slightly below.

If Noboa is the favorite in the second round, his legislative bloc will likely become the first or second-largest political force.

This would shift the dynamic, as correísmo would lose its dominant influence, or at least Noboa would have a significant bloc that could change the balance of power.

However, there’s still a long way to go until the elections, so making any final predictions is premature. The situation must be monitored closely. So far, the political parties have remained subdued and cautious, likely saving their resources for the coming months.

Judicial rulings against political groups or potential corruption scandals could also further damage the reputation of political figures.

The next few months will be critical.