New Peru govt won’t ‘reinvent the wheel’

While votes are still being counted, leftist Pedro Castillo seems to have clinched a razor-thin advantage over right-wing Keiko Fujimori in Peru’s presidential elections.

Castillo will be a principled left-wing leader when it comes to relations with other governments and even leave the Lima Group that is trying to pressure Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Economic relations, however, are likely to grow stronger, even with countries like Brazil, which is governed by an ideologically opposed president.

BNamericas talked to Dawisson Lopes, professor of international relations at Brazil’s Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais and senior South America at the Brazilian Center for International Relations, about the highly contested elections, political and economic relations between Brazil and Peru, and more.

BNamericas: Did you expect so much polarization in Peru’s presidential elections?

Lopes: All serious polls conducted in the last few weeks already indicated that the margin would be very narrow and that this election could be decided by an insignificant difference in votes, which is what happened.

Ipsos recorded 50.2% for Castillos against 49.8% for Fujimori, which was almost the result. If a close race was already predicted, the parties had time to develop their strategies. Since Fujimori has a history of institutional contestation, not having accepted a similar result in 2016, it was already expected that she might do the same now.

There is a component of populist psychology, which is repeated everywhere in the world, both on the left and right. The popular, beloved leader never loses the election but is damaged. [The] election was supposedly rigged, because the leader represents the people.

This was already predictable.

BNamericas: How will President Jair Bolsonaro's relationship with Pedro Castillo, who takes office in July, play out?

Lopes: There will certainly be no goodwill. Castillo is a markedly leftist and tends to align with governments further to the left, like the one in Venezuela.

BNamericas: Will that affect economic relations, which are usually more pragmatic?

Lopes: I think there is little room for another course of bilateral cooperation. There is no reason for a swerve. What I have observed in Brazil's relations with Bolivia, for example, which also has a left-wing president, is that the consistency does not change.

Business groups will continue doing business. There is no interest on the Brazilian side to instrumentalize this ideologically. Of course, the Brazilian government was rooting for the right-wing candidate.

BNamericas: So, trade relations will be sorted out?

Lopes: Yes, they tend to follow more or less a natural course. I don't see a big change. Topically, some issues might be reviewed. For example, the posture of the Lima Group in relation to Venezuela is getting weaker. [Peru] might leave the Lima Group, as Castillo promised.

But even so, [US President Joe] Biden had already deflated the initiative. Also, the Brazilian government is already reviewing the relationship with Venezuela and there are proposals for rapprochement on pragmatic foundations, focusing on niches where it is possible to cooperate in a technical and depoliticized way.

BNamericas: Why did Peru’s elections unfold the way they did?

Lopes: It is necessary to draw attention to the institutional instability that Peru has experienced in recent years. There is a similarity between [Brazil’s anti-corruption probe] Lava Jato, which swept the electoral and political-party framework away.

The judicial and law enforcement process that took place in Peru brought lawmakers down. The economy was disrupted by this process.

Now an attempt to reorganize the country differently is taking place. After so much instability, aggravated by a badly managed pandemic, it seems that Peruvians are betting on a profound change.

It was an anti-systemic bet, a turnaround, an attempt to hoist a candidate willing to review the foundations of politics. This is the high stakes moment [voters created].

As for business, … I don’t see a willingness to reinvent the wheel and discontinue. The great matrix that has served as inspiration for several of these countries is the Chinese model, where pragmatism reigns.