Peru social conflicts: The outlook for 2024

Social conflicts in Peru are a constant threat to the mining sector. However, 2023 has been a relatively quiet year in terms of conflicts, allowing copper production to rebound as many mining companies such as Las Bambas and Southern Copper resumed normal operations after a complex 2022.

Although copper production will set a record in 2023 – with an estimated 2.7-2.8Mt – certain disputes are resurfacing and are likely to have an impact in 2024. With the first months of 2024 expected to be affected by the El Niño weather phenomenon – with heavy rain in the north and drought in the south – disputes over water use are forecast to grow.

BNamericas spoke with José de Echave, former undersecretary of environmental management at the environment ministry and founder of the NGO CooperAcción, about the conflicts in 2023, the problem of water stress and informal mining near large operations.

BNamericas: What is your assessment of the handling of social conflicts in 2023?

Echave: In the first months of the year there was a peak in mobilizations, but significant fatigue was noticed [in the population]. Many of the mobilizations were in the southern Andean region, an area that produces more than 70% of Peruvian copper.

Regarding prevention strategies, there was no major response other than declaring a state of emergency on the southern mining corridor [CMS, used to transport concentrates to port]. That said, I do get the feeling that in recent weeks there has been a reactivation of conflicts in several areas.

BNamericas: Which regions and projects in particular?

Echave: Ayacucho is a region that must be kept in mind. Much of the mining in the area – small and medium-sized mining – is in water-producing areas, which can generate conflicts.

It’s time to see the correlation between mining conflicts and the issue of water shortages at the national level. There are 544 districts – in 14 regions – where a water emergency has been declared, and the entire Andean zone of the country is suffering a terrible drought.

In the case of the CMS, there have been claims of non-compliance with contracts by various communities linked to Minera Las Bambas – Chumbivilcas and Cotabambas. There was also the conflict with the workers' union, but a serious conflict is that of informal mining around the future Chalcobamba pit.

BNamericas: What is the problem at that deposit?

Echave: The health crisis of 2020 brought many people back from big cities to their communities and pressured them to have economic alternatives to survive. Mining, in this case informal and/or small-scale, was one of the most attractive sectors, and even today there are disputes with large-scale mining over land.

That is what has been happening in Chalcobamba. On several occasions they tell me that miners began to settle in the area of the deposit and that, at the time, Las Bambas did not restrict them in order to avoid a new conflict. Then they realized that the problem has been growing, and now it’s much more difficult to handle.

BNamericas: Do you see risks in other areas?

Echave: Informal mining has hit various operations, and today it’s difficult to stop it expanding. This is observed in the province of Pataz [in Libertad region], where the Poderosa gold mining company operates, and it has become a “no man's land.”

On the other hand, although Antamina has not had conflicts linked to its mining operations – but it has in the Huarmey port [Áncash region] from where they ship copper concentrates – there have been conflicts with communities in regions neighboring the mine. I have the impression that they’re trying to be considered to be within the zone of influence. We will have to see what happens with the expansion project and how they handle it.

BNamericas: What’s the outlook for 2024?

Echave: Mining conflicts will be around existing operations, and the CMS must be looked at very carefully. If it’s constantly said that it’s a strategic area due to resources, a new governance plan must be implemented, but they’re not doing anything and the area is just being militarized.

The issue of water stress will be another factor that must be considered in anticipating possible conflicts. From that perspective, the regions of Tacna, Moquegua, Arequipa and Ica will have to be watched closely. In those regions there are important operations such as Southern Copper, Anglo American's Quellaveco, and Marcobre’s Mina Justa.

In Latin America, the average water storage capacity is 2,500m3 per capita while in Peru it is only 180m3. That indicates the size of the water conflict issue and how we should begin to address it. This goes beyond the mining sector.

In general, the scenario isn’t easy. We’re going to start 2024 with certain latent conflicts, with a global climate emergency, and with an El Niño that has always brought torrential rains on the coast and drought in the Andean zone. The current balance is extremely precarious.

BNamericas: You were undersecretary of environmental management. What policies should be implemented?

Echave: We should try to develop a pilot program in a particular area, and for me that area is the CMS. It’s important to design a preventive and not a reactive strategy. The national government must be present and coordinate with the regional governments – along the 400km of the corridor – the implementation of spaces for dialogue and participation of the respective parties.

Along the CMS there is an opportunity that has so far been untapped. There is no one who is really opposed to mining and calling for it to go away. What there is is a type of coexistence conflict, which is a window of opportunity to design policies for other areas where there is opposition, such as Tía María in Arequipa region.