Realpolitik: Biden's potential strategy to end the Venezuela crisis

Piero Trepiccione, political science professor and director of the Barquisimeto-based Ladeshu-Obu political observatory, talks to BNamericas about how US foreign policy towards Venezuela will change under Joe Biden's administration.

BNamericas: What can we expect from Biden regarding his policy towards Venezuela and what will his ambitions be? Will he take a more multilateral approach instead of seeking to act unilaterally? If so, who will he be looking to work with? Could he collaborate with the Lima Group, Colombia or the European Union?

Trepiccione: From the inauguration of Biden there will be a more positive climate regarding the case of Venezuela in particular. Biden and the Democrats have a vision closer to multilateralism to address the political crisis in Venezuela. I believe that the United States is going to get closer to the European Union.

Under Trump, the US moved away from the European Union. There were differences of opinion and divisions, which strengthened the Moscow-Beijing axis, which is in favor of Nicolás Maduro. The West, including the US and the EU, needs to put together a common bloc. [Biden's election] is something positive, especially if it can influence countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

BNamericas: What will Biden's ultimate goal be for Venezuela? Will he seek to force regime change, as Trump did through sanctions and bellicose threats, or will he exercise pressure for free and transparent elections?

Trepiccione: That is the key question. The central objective is to achieve an electoral process that is recognized by Beijing and Moscow, and the Western world. Acting as a bloc would be a more effective way to force free elections. To achieve that, Maduro needs to feel that there is internal and external unity. Everyone, including the Venezuelan opposition, has to unite for a single purpose because dispersion and division have made [the movement to return to democracy] lose steam.

BNamericas: What will Biden's first tasks be in relation to Venezuela?

Trepiccione: As vice president [to Barack Obama], Biden lived through the entire process of negotiations with the Castro [brothers] for the reopening of the embassies and the approach to Cuba – a process that Trump stopped. Biden witnessed this process and the negotiation channels – which include Moscow – may be reopened to try to resolve the political crisis in Venezuela. It's a subject of great geopolitical interest in the US. The EU, Brazil and Colombia will also have important roles.

BNamericas: Will Biden recognize Juan Guaidó as the legitimate head of state of Venezuela, as Trump did?

Trepiccione: The Biden administration is going to recognize Guaidó as the leader of the opposition, for diplomatic and protocol reasons. The EU has stated that this will be its position. It is understood that this will make it easier to tackle a new process that can put an end to the Venezuelan political crisis.

BNamericas: You mentioned that the Venezuelan opposition must be strong and united for any change to take place. Do you think that can realistically happen?

Trepiccione: The best results for the opposition in parliamentary elections have occurred when it is united and organized. That has to be the priority of the opposition politicians because when they are not united, it has been easier for the Maduro government to win. Around 75% to 78% of voters have a bad opinion of Maduro, but unfortunately they're distrustful of all political leaders. Guaidó has to change his strategy and win the support of other important leaders so that people see a united opposition. Unity is absolutely proportional to an eventual process of change. And the non-unity is proportional to the time Maduro will remain in power.

BNamericas: What does Guaidó need to do to achieve this?

Trepiccione: The first thing he needs to do is unite with the leaders who are inside and outside Venezuela, such as Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo López and Antonio Ledezma. Not by WhatsApp or Zoom, but in a sincere face-to-face meeting. It should be a two- or three-day event, or even weeklong. Whatever it takes to debate and resolve all their differences and come out with one speech and one strategy. It could also involve representatives from the US, the EU and Latin America, such as the Lima Group. This is a step that should happen immediately.

BNamericas: Will Biden agree to negotiate directly with Maduro?

Trepiccione: I think so, though perhaps at first through back channels. But I do believe that Biden and the EU are aware of the Venezuelan reality and have to play realpolitik. It is no secret to anyone that the person who is effectively exercising power is Nicolás Maduro. Due to the polarization that these negotiations could generate, at first it should be handled secretly.

BNamericas: Will Biden lift the sanctions against Venezuela? If so, how soon could it happen?

Trepiccione: I don't think the new administration will immediately lift the sanctions, but there may be an attempt to improve the strategy or focus the sanctions more. On the one hand, they have struck and hindered the Maduro government, but they have also hit the population, which continues to suffer a humanitarian crisis. I believe that sanctions can remain an element of negotiations and will serve as a bargaining chip.

It will be a long and hard process. Negotiating with Maduro is not going to be easy. But I believe in one to three years there may be a lifting of the sanctions. The point to take into account is that Biden is 78 years old and is very unlikely to be a candidate in the next election. In this sense, Biden needs to meet his goals sooner rather than later. The advantage is that he's not starting from scratch. He has eight years of experience as vice president and his team knows the [Maduro] government.

BNamericas: What will happen to the Venezuelan oil industry?

Trepiccione: PDVSA is obviously going to be in the [diplomatic] conversation. Keep in mind that the most profound problem that PDVSA has is the lack of financing. The Venezuelan state does not have the financial capacity to reactivate production and needs other states or multinational corporations to help. But for this to happen, there must be a change in sanctions that allows PDVSA to trade its oil. Surely that will be a bargaining chip in the negotiations.