Why Brazil's electorate isn't impressed by centrist candidates

Recent surveys show that Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro could gain some ground in the presidential race, while centrist candidacies failed to take off. 

Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains the frontrunner, however.

Creomar de Souza, CEO of consulting firm Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, talked with BNamericas about the centrist candidates, Bolsonaro’s advantage, and the potential for social tensions.

BNamericas: Why have centrist candidates not gained much ground so far?

Souza: First, we have to qualify the third way a little. Most of the third-way candidates are center-right candidates, while only one [Ciro Gomes] represents the center-left.

Currently, the biggest uncertainties are with the candidates who represent the center right.

The problem that I notice is that these candidates have not yet presented a clear agenda. There is no efficient work to show what the proposal of this so-called third way really is.

BNamericas: And what explains the low level of voting intentions for these third-way candidates according to the polls?

Souza: The simple fact that a voter does not want to vote for the leading candidates so far, Lula or Bolsonaro, does not automatically mean this voter will vote for a third-way candidate. Without a clear agenda, this transfer of votes does not happen.

Whether you agree or not, Bolsonaro has a very clear agenda for his voters, while Lula's is also defined.

It is natural that the other candidates want to attract the vote of those who are dissatisfied with these two candidacies, but then the proposals need to be very well defined and clear.

BNamericas: When will the names of the presidential candidates be definitive?

Souza: We are now looking at negotiations between political parties to see how party alliances will be formed.

After that, the parties will use April, May and June to evaluate [who] would have real chances in the elections. I believe that during this period some candidates that are now in the polls will give up the candidacy.

The candidates will likely be definitive in August.

BNamericas: Bolsonaro closed the gap to Lula a bit. Who of the two would come out on top?

Souza: It's too early to predict a winner.

What we will have in my view is an election that will have the character of a plebiscite, which involves both voters who are against Lula and those who are against Bolsonaro.

This, in itself, generates confusion in the electoral debate.

In the 2018 election, there was a global wave in favor of so-called political outsiders and Bolsonaro managed to get elected with this narrative that he was not part of the traditional political world, even though he had been a lawmaker for years.

This year's election will be quite different.

The conjuncture today demands that candidates have a clear plan to overcome the economic challenges. This scenario poses challenges for candidates because they must show that their economic proposals are the most viable.

For the current president, this scenario has certain positive elements, because as president, he has the power to approve economic measures that have immediate effects, which translate into money in people's pockets.

Despite all the intellectual discussion about politics that analysts do, most voters are people who struggle to survive, to pay their bills month by month. In view of this, whoever is president and wants to be reelected has greater capacity to sustain the candidacy, because he has the power to approve social measures.

BNamericas: Recent surveys show stagnant voting intentions for Lula. Has his candidacy reached a ceiling?

Souza: We are still not seeing Lula really in the electoral campaign.

The statements Lula has made so far are in so-called controlled environments, where he speaks directly to that group of supporters.

What current surveys show is Lula's potential for votes without him being openly campaigning.

As his campaign starts to gain traction, he will talk more to different audiences. Then we will know if the intention to vote for him has reached a ceiling or if he has more growth potential.

BNamericas: How tense could the social situation become?

Souza: Looking at the current picture, we have a candidate, who is the president, who is constantly attacking the TSE [superior electoral court] and defends this narrative with his supporters.

The question will be how much these narratives will attract appeal among the president's supporters in the event of a defeat.

There are indeed great risks of tensions, but this will also depend on the TSE's ability to hold a flawless election. For example, the TSE on election day will have to be very vigilant that the systems work well and do not cause delays in the count.

If we have an election with a very tight result … this increases the chances of tensions a lot.