AMLO takes a bow, as two huge challenges await

When leading presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) stands before a crowd of tens of thousands of supporters Wednesday evening at Mexico's iconic Estadio Azteca, he will carry with him the confidence of the latest polls suggesting Sunday's vote will be a landslide victory.

Having offered a litany of promises to stamp out violence and corruption - and ultimately lift millions of his supporters out of poverty - he also carries with him countless expectations that he will have to provide concrete solutions.

With official campaigns going into blackout mode on Thursday, AMLO's rock-star-studded event to close the campaign marks a final public footnote in the longest chapter of his 42-year political career, his quest for the presidency.

After losing in 2006 and 2012, AMLO has said repeatedly that this would be his last run at the presidency, and that he would go quietly into the night should he fall short again. His supporter, however, would probably revolt were he to lose on Sunday - he's just too far ahead in the polls.

Two polls coming out Wednesday offer evidence of this. The El Economista-Mitofsky poll showed AMLO with 52% of effective voter preference - discounting the 29% of respondents who gave no defined answer in the survey. José Antonio Meade, of the PRI ruling party, came in second with 22% and Ricardo Anaya (PAN-PRD), the former chief of the PAN party, garnered 21%.

Another poll, conducted by Mexican daily Reforma, showed AMLO with 51% over Anaya's 27% and Meade's 19%, with 17% saying 'no answer'.

As AMLO goes for a pre-election victory lap, it's time to ask why he's so far ahead in the lead.

Blood and betrayal

"While the markets worry about Nafta, the domestic story in Mexico has been exploding violence," said political risk expert Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group, in an email to BNamericas.

In 2006 then-president Felipe Calderón (who barely edged out AMLO) launched a war on drug cartels that drove violence to unforeseen levels. Current President Enrique Peña Nieto - who defeated AMLO in 2012 - promised to get the situation under control, only to see the violence intensify.

The violence leading up to the election is more troubling, creating fear of yet another chapter in the country's long history of shady elections that could miraculously bring Meade or Anaya a win.

"There have been over 120 politicians assassinated in the run-up to elections so far, by far the worst of any Mexican election on record," Bremmer added.

There were over 2,500 homicides in the country just in May, the worst tally of any month since the government started collecting data. "It's happening everywhere, even in areas where there's been comparative quiet, like the center west," he said.

On Tuesday, the federal elections institute (INE) reported that 11,500 ballots were stolen from the small town of Macuspana in AMLO's home state of Tabasco.

Bremmer stressed that drug cartels are now increasing their influence and looking to expand their pressure on local governments. Some towns have given up on the government and have essentially gone independent, cutting their own deals with whatever local interest can provide security.

"It's now the top worry for voters heading to the polls - [AMLO] is considered to be the most effective in their minds (mostly because he's something completely different), but he has no serious plan to address it," he added.

"That means a big distraction at the beginning of López Obrador's presidency, more spending (and more fiscal risk accordingly), and upward pressure on migration to the United States. That's in turn going to make AMLO-Trump relations even sharper. Not an easy year for Mexico."

Just as insidious, the other main driving force behind AMLO is corruption.

"Veteran socialist Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his followers will probably sweep to power because of the failure of the current regime to respond to rising public demands for a serious attack on corruption," said international banker and philanthropist William Rhodes, founder of the William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, in an op-ed piece for Reuters.

"As in Brazil, Malaysia, South Africa, and Italy as well, corruption has become the dominant issue in politics and establishment leaders are being given the boot."

Rhodes added that under the Mexican system, the presidential and parliamentary elections are in July, but the presidential victor only takes power in December, while the new parliament is not sworn in until September.

"That means there could be up to six months of lame-duck, do-nothing, leadership in Mexico - a period that will see the country face unprecedented trade protectionist pressures from its northern neighbor, starting with the United States suspending NAFTA negotiations."

Thus, while violence and corruption may be at the forefront of local political discourse during the complex and protracted lame-duck transition, foreign policy will need more immediate care.

Even though Trump ultimately ought not be credited for bringing AMLO a big win, early indications of mutual agreement between the outgoing and likely incoming government on NAFTA, trade and US-Mexico relations may well offer both camps the common ground needed to engineering the best transition possible at a very difficult time in the nation's history.