At a Glance: Panama power expansion plan

Panamanian energy authorities have reduced their power demand forecast amid a more conservative economic outlook due to shifts in the world economy.

In its proposed 2018-32 expansion plan for the national interconnected system (PESIN), state power transmission company Etesa highlights "recent winds of isolation globally" and its impact on the country, in particular the canal, port facilities and tourism.

"Furthermore, the structural and political problems of South America's economies, usual clients, do not permit a better performance of re-export activities," according to Etesa.

PESIN's annual electricity consumption and maximum capacity growth rates are projected to average 4.6-4.8% and 4.1-4.3%, respectively, one to two percentage points lower than previous plans.

The plan also points to a slight reduction in power use in recent years due to the gradual increase of residential and commercial distributed generation, and a sale ban of low efficiency refrigeration and air conditioning equipment.

Nevertheless, Etesa expects energy intensive state infrastructure projects to buoy electricity offtake.

GENERATION

In a reference scenario, PESIN envisions the installation of 2,394MW to reach 5,745MW.

Of the new capacity, 65% would come from thermoelectric plants, 18% hydro, 10% wind and 7% solar, for combined investment of US$3bn.

The document adds that the entry of natural gas-fired plants will "considerably" lower the marginal cost an average 12% through 2022, but that the marginal cost would then increase due to an expected increase in the price of fuels.

Read 1.07GW Panama gas-to-power projects advance

TRANSMISSION

And on the transmission front, Etesa says that the principal problem is the dynamic response of reactive compensation.

"A reactive reserve deficit is present in the national interconnected system and restriction in the capacity of transmission in the west-east direction during the rainy season. This operational condition impedes economic dispatch, because in order to operate the system in safe manner, obligated generation (thermos) is required."

Starting in 2020, however, approved transmission projects and those in development will be enough to cover internal requirements.

Read Panama reveals 4th line prequalifiers

Panama's public services regulator Asep will accept comment on PESIN through October 24. Information, including the expansion plan, is available here.

For a look at power generation and transmission infrastucture in Panama, go to the BNamericas Project Profiles which include: