Bolivia's ballot battle: Divided left, disjointed right

Bolivia continues to experience significant uncertainty ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for August 17.

While the left-wing bloc, represented by the ruling MAS party and former president Evo Morales remains divided, the opposition has yet to unify its efforts to increase its chances of winning the presidency or reaching a second round.

According to local media, Morales has officially resigned from MAS and intends to run for president under the banner of the Frente Para la Victoria party, which has been accused of copying government policies and selling political positions. Meanwhile, representatives of the ruling party welcomed Morales' departure and even encouraged his supporters to leave with him.

Morales continues to openly criticize the Luis Arce administration while living in central Bolivia. In January, a judge issued an arrest warrant for Morales after he failed to attend a court hearing concerning allegations of sexual abuse involving a minor, which the former president has denied, describing them as politically motivated attacks orchestrated by his former ally and current political rival, Arce. 

Morales is reportedly living in Chapare in northern Cochabamba department under the protection of supporters within the coca growers' unions, and moving to arrest him is viewed as politically risky.

Although tensions between Arce – who served as economy minister under Morales – and the former president continue to deepen internal divisions among their followers, the political opposition has yet to capitalize on this split.

The center-right bloc – comprising former presidents Carlos Mesa, Jorge Quiroga and other political figures – has not yet announced a unified candidate. Meanwhile, Manfred Reyes Villa, the mayor of Cochabamba and a potential contender, has kept his distance from the alliance.

Risks

The rupture between Morales and MAS, along with his constitutional ban from running in the elections, does not mean that the former leader of the coca growers' union will lack influence in the race. 

According to local analysts, Morales retains a hardcore vote of at least 20%, regardless of whether he remains affiliated with MAS.

On the other hand, now that Morales is no longer a member of the ruling party, any successes or failures of the administration will be attributed solely to Arce, who is also seeking re-election but faces the challenge of a difficult economic outlook.

GDP growth is projected to be between 1.5% and 1.9% this year, while annual inflation could reach up to 22%, according to Bolivian business leaders. 

Additionally, the ongoing fuel crisis could further weaken the government's chances of securing another term, as the country grapples with protests and shortages of essential goods.