Bolivia's GDP forecast to grow 1.5% in 2025, well below government expectations

Bolivia's economy will grow 1.5% in 2025, one of the slowest rates in Latin America despite a lower comparative base than neighboring countries such as Peru, Colombia and Ecuador, according to a World Bank report.

The Bolivian economy expanded by an estimated 1.4% last year and the multilateral also projects growth of 1.5% in 2026. The figures – which are explained by factors such as inflation, shortages of inputs and fuels, and a political crisis – compare with growth of 3.6% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023. This year will be a complex one given that presidential elections will be held in August.

The projections are below the World Bank’s growth outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean of 2.5% this year and 2.6% in 2026. However, according to Bolivia’s economy ministry, GDP will grow 3.51% this year and the government will prioritize macroeconomic and fiscal stability.

Santa Cruz construction chamber Cadecocruz, meanwhile, told BNamericas that the GDP growth trend is downward and inflation will continue to rise.

“Our forecasts are similar [to those of the World Bank], with GDP fluctuating between 1.5% and 1.9%,” said Óscar Mario Ortiz Sandoval, director of the center for economic studies and development at Cadecocruz.

Cadecocruz expects inflation in 2025 to come in at between 20% and 22% if the same government policies are maintained. The government projects a rate of 7.5%.