Brazil’s distributed generation forecast to attract up to US$30bn by 2034

Brazil’s distributed generation (DG) is projected to grow between 56% and 135% in the next decade, requiring investments of 70.4-162 billion reais (US$12.8-29.4bn) in the period. 

That projection was released recently by federal energy research company EPE.

National DG capacity currently stands at approximately 30GW, based mainly on solar energy, according to the sector watchdog Aneel. There are 2.6mn installations spread over 5,548 municipalities across the country.

The range of forecasts is basically due to the uncertainties related to the remuneration for the energy injected into the grid from 2029 onwards, resulting from the methodology for calculating micro and mini DG (MMGD) benefits for the electricity sector, which is yet to be defined by Aneel. 

EPE’s base case scenario foresees that Brazil’s DG capacity will reach 58.8GW in 2034, requiring capex of 116bn reais. 

Meanwhile, the low-end and high-end scenarios project 46.9GW (70.4bn reais) and 70.5GW (162bn reais), respectively.  

In the reference scenario, the residential segment should be the leader in terms of installed capacity, while photovoltaic energy remains predominant among generation technologies.