Brazil's energy sector forecast to require US$560bn investments over next decade

The total investment required in Brazil's energy sector for the next 10 years is forecast at around 3.2tn reais (US$560bn), according to federal energy research company EPE. 

The oil and gas sector will account for 78.1% of the investments (2.49tn reais) by 2034, of which 2.35tn reais will be for exploration and production (E&P), 124bn reais for supply of oil derivatives and 16bn reais for supply of natural gas.

For electricity, 352bn reais are planned for centralized generation, 117bn reais for distributed generation and 129bn reais for transmission. 

The biofuels market, meanwhile, is expected to require capex of around 102bn reais over the next decade, of which 67bn reais will be for ethanol production units and pipeline infrastructure, 14.7bn reais for production units and raw material crushers (such as soybeans) for biodiesel production, 17.5bn reais for sustainable aviation fuels and green diesel and 2.9bn reais for biomethane. 

Energy supply and consumption

Over the 10-year period, EPE estimates that internal energy supply (OIE) will grow at an average rate of 2.2% per year and reach approximately 394Mtoe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2034. 

Electricity generation is growing at an average rate of 3.3% per year, reaching an estimated supply of 1,045TWh in 2034.

Key for the evolution of the OIE, final energy consumption is forecast to reach 329Mtoe by the end of 2034, with an average growth rate of 2% per annum over the 10-year horizon.

The share of oil and oil products in the OIE is expected to fall to 30% from 35% by 2034, while the share of natural gas will rise to 14% from 11%. 

The percentage of renewable energies will remain in the 50% range.

Source: EPE

Electricity supply

In terms of electricity supply, Brazil is expected to maintain the predominance of generation based on renewable sources such as hydro, biomass, wind and solar, with renewables accounting for 86.1% of the total at the end of the 10-year horizon.

The share of hydroelectric generation will fall to 46.7% from 55.8% of the total, while solar and wind will rise to 5.8% from 3.4% and to 17.2% from 15%, respectively. 

Source: EPE

Overview of planned expansion up to 2034

Hydroelectric plants (HPPs)

Total: 6,479MW 

Contracted: 48MW (one plant) 

Indicative: 6,431MW, including 1 HPP (118MW) and modernization of existing hydroelectric plants (6,313MW) 

Note: "Indicative" expansion is that which has not been contracted and has been signaled as necessary to meet the system's requirements, in addition to the existing supply already contracted.

Small hydroelectric plants (SHPs) and hydroelectric generating plants (CGHs)

Total: 3,287MW 

Contracted: 487MW (38 SHPs and HGPs) 

Indicative: 2,800MW 

Note: Small hydro plants (SHPs) have between 5MW and 30MW of potency and less than 13km2 of water reservoir area. Plants with less than 5MW are classified by electric power watchdog Aneel as hydroelectric generating units (HGPs).

Non-renewable thermal plants 

Total: 28,136MW 

Contracted: 8,796MW, including nine new natural gas plants (4,932MW) and 10 existing natural gas plants with new contracts (3,864MW) 

Indicative: 19,340MW of natural gas plants 

Nuclear plants

1,405MW 

Contracted: one nuclear plant (Angra 3 - 1,405 MW) 

Renewable thermal plants

2,272MW 

Contracted: 534 MW (16 new and two expanded plants, seven of which are sugarcane bagasse plants (247MW), seven chip/waste plants (180MW), two vegetable oil plants (69MW), one elephant grass plant (18MW) and one urban solid waste plant (20MW)) 

Indicative: 1,738MW

Wind plants

Total: 15,504MW 

Contracted: 2,404MW (45 wind farms)

Indicative: 13,100MW

Photovoltaic plants 

Total: 13,147MW 

Contracted: 4,547MW (90 projects) 

Indicative: 8,600MW

Demand response 

Total: 2,000MW 

Indicative: 2,000MW

Note: Demand response is a mechanism that makes it possible for large consumers in the free energy market to voluntarily reduce or shift their electricity demand. The participating agent declares to the national grid operator ONS, on a weekly basis, its interest in reducing its demand in exchange for financial compensation.

Energy storage 

Total 800MW 

Indicative: 800MW

Transmission

Total 30,198km 

Contracted: 24,450km expected to be operational by 2029 

Indicative: 5,737km 

Oil and gas E&P

Contracted: 96 exploration blocks with production expected to start within the decade 

Indicative: 53 blocks available for the open acreage program

Refineries, natural gas processing units (NGPUs) and LNG terminals

One refinery planned and one set of refining assets planned 

Two planned NGPUs and one indicative NGPU 

One LNG regasification terminal planned

Gas pipelines

Three transport pipelines: two planned and one indicative 

Three outflow pipelines planned 

Four compressor stations: two planned and two indicative

Ethanol 

13.1Bl (billion liters) 

22 planned plants (15 full corn, one flex corn, three cereal and/or other grain and three sugar cane), 43 expanded plants and indicative 3Bl of corn ethanol  

Biodiesel 

4.4Bl

Eight plants planned

Nine plants expanded

Self-production and distributed generation 

Self-production: 3,905MW 

Indicative: thermoelectric 3,559MW, hydroelectric 297MW, solar 48MW, wind 1MW 

Distributed generation: 27,328MW 

Indicative: photovoltaic 26,642MW, thermoelectric 263MW, wind 308MW, CGH 114MW