Brazil’s oil output forecast to grow 47% in the next 10 years

Brazil’s oil output is expected to reach 4.4Mb/d in 2034, up 47% from 2023, according to projections by state energy research company EPE. 

Peak production of 5.3Mb/d is forecast for 2030. 

“Oil production will increase until 2030, but will not be sustained throughout the decade, even with the start of production of undiscovered resources,” EPE said in a report. 

The pre-salt will continue to contribute the lion's share of oil output, accounting for around 76% of the country’s production in 2034, the agency said.

NATURAL GAS

EPE estimates gross natural gas production of 315Mm3/d in 2034 – up 110% on 2023 – with a peak of 316Mm3/d in 2031. 

As with oil, the pre-salt will continue to make a significant contribution to natural gas production over the next 10 years, accounting for around 80% of Brazil’s output in 2034, EPE said.

At the end of the decade, net natural gas production is expected to peak at 134Mm3/d, up 158% from 2023. Some 60% of the projected output will come from the pre-salt.  

ONSHORE 

By 2034, onshore oil equivalent production is expected to grow 46% compared to 2023, reaching 311,000boe/d.