Center-right alliance heats up Bolivia’s presidential race

As Bolivia's presidential elections in August approach, the possibility of an alliance between representatives of center and right-wing political parties is gaining momentum, which could prove decisive. 

After former president Carlos Mesa withdrew from the electoral race to support an alliance aimed at challenging the ruling Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) party, new political figures have stepped forward to back the Unity Bloc coalition. 

The bloc – which includes another former president, Jorge Quiroga, as well as politician and former cement magnate Samuel Doria and Santa Cruz department governor Luis Fernando Camacho – has already gained the support of Vicente Cuellar, rector of Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, and former housing minister María Amparo Ballivián.

Although the alliance has yet to finalize its single candidate for the election, a decision that will be made through a survey, according to local media, the mayor of Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Villa, has emerged as the likely candidate. 

A report by consultancy Control Risks indicates that Reyes Villa leads the race and is the strongest contender.

If no candidate obtains over 50% of the votes in the first round on August 17, or at least 40% of the vote with a margin of at least 10 percentage points over the second-place candidate, there will be a runoff on October 19.

MAS party

While the opposition is beginning to step up its efforts to organize for the election, the ruling party is still split by friction between President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales.

Morales – a left-wing figurehead who retains significant popular support – continues to openly criticize Arce's administration while living in central Bolivia. In January, a judge issued an arrest warrant for Morales after he failed to attend a court hearing concerning allegations of sexual abuse involving a minor which the former president has denied, describing them as politically motivated attacks orchestrated by his former ally and current political rival, Arce. 

As Morales is reportedly living in Chapare in northern Cochabamba department under the protection of supporters within the coca growers' unions, moving to arrest him is currently viewed as a risky political move.

"While the police know where he is, they have not arrested him to avoid likely clashes with his supporters that would result in casualties or a nationwide strike, as the government does not have the political support to take that risk," Control Risks states in its report.

Regarding Morales' intention to run in the elections, the arrest warrant almost certainly means he will not be eligible, but he maintains that he will stand and believes he will be cleared to do so. 

MAS will select its candidate in the coming weeks, and the rift in the ruling party looks likely to make the process challenging, as well as complicating the situation in the months in the run up to the election.

“The case against him will continue throughout the election, fueling tensions within the MAS and intermittent civil unrest during the next months.... More demonstrations are very likely to occur over the next three months, causing disruption and vandalism in the capital,” the report said.