Central America power demand forecast to jump 70%
Electricity use in Central America is projected to reach 101TWh in 2038, up 71.6% from 2022, averaging growth of 3.4% per year.
The forecast is part of regional grid operator EOR’s 2024-38 indicative generation and transmission expansion plan.
Maximum load demand in the period is estimated to increase 62.2% to 15,147MW, averaging 3.1% growth per year.
Panama is slated to lead offtake and load demand in 2038 with 24,651GWh and 3,602MW, respectively, as well as expected new capacity of 1,823MW over the next five years.
The bulk of the country’s new capacity will come from natural gas-fired projects Gatun (670MW) and GTPP (458MW).
After Panama, Honduras comes in second with 785MW in new capacity, followed by Nicaragua (592MW), Costa Rica (305MW) and El Salvador (276MW).
Although the roadmap states that Guatemala did not submit a medium-term expansion figure due to the lack of information of approved projects with financing or in construction, BNamericas is tracking 17 generation projects in the country.
On the transmission front, expansions to maintain regional grid exchange capacity at 300MW total 29 works for a combined US$198mn, and six works for a combined US$57mn to reach 450MW.
Distribution of investment by country to maintain 300MW (Source: EOR)
The roadmap also highlights that Interconexión Eléctrica Colombia-Panamá, comprising Panama’s state power transmission company Etesa and Colombia’s ISA, envisions the proposed link between the countries entering service in the third quarter of 2026.
EOR’s generation and transmission expansion plans and diagnostic are available in the Documents box in the top right corner of the screen.
For recent developments, click on the following links:
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