Colombia set for 'significant' 2025 gas shortfall

Colombia faces a natural gas deficit of more than 120,000MBTU/d (million British thermal units a day) next year as local production and LNG imports fail to keep up with surging demand, a report shows. 

Gas market operator BMC said its forecast excluded thermoelectric generators and petrochemical plants, which required a separate analysis. 

"A significant gas deficit is expected for the year 2025, with a projected shortfall of 120,688 MBTU/d, primarily affecting residential, commercial, and industrial sectors," the entity said. 

Households and commercial users in the interior region face a shortfall of 41,696MBUT/d from firm contracts while for coastal consumers the figure is seen reaching 10,177MBTU/d.

The worst-hit segment, according to BMC, will be industrial consumers in the interior, which are expected to encounter a supply-demand gap of 70,439 MBTU/d.

BMC said the situation could be eased by the re-allocation of surplus gas in sectors such as GNVC, which has an excess of 32,298MBTU/d, and a ramp up of LNG imports. 

It warned, however, that an increased reliance on LNG would lead to higher prices for final users. 

Colombian state-run oil company Ecopetrol responded to the report by calling for urgent action to avoid rationing of the fossil fuel.

“We must all take steps, such as saving, rebalancing and optimizing our consumption," Ecopetrol CEO Ricardo Roa said in a statement. "In addition, we must consider the possibility of replacing natural gas with liquids during these critical periods.” 

According to Roa, the looming gas deficit could increase household gas bills by 10-12%. 

The full report, in Spanish, is available in the Documents box in the top right corner.