Colombia-Venezuela ties in spotlight ahead of Maduro’s inauguration

Diplomatic relations between Colombia and Venezuela are likely to face heightened scrutiny when Donald Trump takes office next month, a political analyst told BNamericas. 

Colombian President Gustavo Petro is one of the few Latin American leaders to have refrained from directly criticizing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro after his widely contested election victory in July. 

However, this position could become harder to maintain as Maduro’s planned inauguration on January 10 nears, according to Control Risks senior analyst Theodore Kahn.

"I think there will be pressure on Petro to take a somewhat more critical stance against Maduro," Kahn said in a telephone interview. 

"There are obviously limits to what Petro can be expected to do in terms of speaking out against Maduro. It's hard to imagine him being overly critical and I don't think he'll start calling [opposition leader] Edmundo González the president-elect. But there might be a subtle shift in the way he talks about Maduro and in his general stance toward Venezuela."

Kahn believes proposals for bilateral cooperation between the South American neighbors, such as a plan by Colombian state oil company Ecopetrol to import Venezuelan gas, are likely to be shelved.

"I don't think we'll hear much more about this idea of importing gas from Venezuela," Kahn said. "I think these kinds of grandiose visions of reestablishing a bilateral relationship with Venezuela will be put on the backburner. 

"Petro is entering his last year and a half in office and his political capital is starting to erode. I doubt these sorts of initiatives that have been discussed with Venezuela are going to gain any traction, especially now with the reelection of Trump."

The full interview with Kahn can be seen here and here.