Copper to maintain current price level for at least a couple of years, experts say

Copper prices are expected to remain at current levels at least for the next couple of years, according to industry experts from Chile, the world's number one copper producer. "The copper price is going to stay high," the VP of Chile's state copper commission Cochilco, Andrés Mac-Lean, told reporters at an event on Wednesday in Santiago. Despite a slowdown in China, the primary copper consuming country is still expected to grow by 5-6%/y in the medium to long term, Mac-Lean said. "We're going to have a lot of copper demand from that consumer," he said. On the supply side, meanwhile, project delays are an obstacle and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future. Over the next three years, Cochilco is expecting a surplus, but not a very significant one, to be followed by a deficit market, Mac-Lean said. "Therefore, I think that prices will fluctuate around today's prices [and] we're looking at a long-term price that could oscillate between US$2.80 and $3.00/lb," he said. SUPERCYCLE TO CONTINUE, FOR NOW On a potential end to the so-called supercycle, Chilean mining minister Hernán de Solminihac noted that "historically the supercycle has lasted around 20 years and today we are at about 10 years." "We still have some time ahead of us with prices at today's level," he said. "We expect [prices] to stay where they are for a few more years." Mining economics expert and professor Gustavo Lagos has said that the supercycle could end between 2015 and 2017, with prices potentially falling below US$3/lb at that time. In any case, de Solminihac said that Chile's mining sector should concern itself more with improving its competitive position. The industry needs to work on cost management, increasing productivity and resolving industry issues so that projects can be carried out. "We need to work on the variables we can control," he said. Copper closed Wednesday at US$3.163/lb cash on the London Metal Exchange, up from the previous day's US$3.162/lb. The metal is averaging US$3.442/lb so far this year.