Ecuador lowers crude output guidance on Yasuní decision

Ecuador’s government forecasts that oil production this year will total 159Mb versus previous guidance of 177Mb.

“Oil production would be affected by the result of the referendum of August 20, 2023, which indefinitely prohibited the exploitation of block 43 ITT,” the economy and finance ministry said in a budget document. 

Voters chose to close the acreage in the Yasuní national park in Orellana province, and the constitutional court stipulated a term of one year to shutter operations.

Ecuador President Daniel Noboa said in recent days he may seek to postpone the decision.

“According to the oil production expectations of block 43 ITT for the period 2023-43 (20 years), which amount to 281.8mn barrels, non-exploitation in block 43 ITT would lead to a reduction in gross income of US$17.6bn, considering an average price of US$62.6 per barrel,” the ministry said, citing a study from the country’s central bank.

Information from Ecuador’s energy regulator shows that crude output on January 23 was 492,156b.

Block 43 ITT was the fourth largest producer that day with 54,757b, after blocks 60 (Sacha), 61 (Auca) and 57 (Shushufindi Libertador) with 80,016b, 77,836b and 76,296b, respectively.

2023 PRODUCTION

The ministry added that January-October crude output reached 141Mb, and that production could total 169Mb in 2023.

Pipeline breaks due to erosion, protests and the natural decline of fields impacted last year’s production forecasts which began at 188Mb and fell to 178Mb and 179Mb in Abril and September, respectively.

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