Ecuador's 'popular consultation' comes under scrutiny

Ecuadorans will go to the polls again this year for a popular consultation – which was a campaign promise of President Daniel Noboa – and the 11 questions were sent on Wednesday to the constitutional court to rule on their eligibility.

The topics include reforms to the organization and operations of the armed forces to combat national and transnational organized crime, increased penalties for crimes such as terrorism, drug production and trafficking, organized crime, murder, money laundering, illegal mining, and the reopening of casinos, which were closed after a previous popular consultation during the government of Rafael Correa (2007-17).

Although the referendum, for which no exact date has been set, is supposed to be binding, the questions do not specify the legal reforms that Noboa seeks to implement and that must go to the national assembly for approval.

Local analysts say the questions are not related to the demands of citizens, especially in combatting crime and particularly the drug trafficking that plagues the country and which has made it one of the most violent in Latin America.

“None of the questions contain the proper text that is intended to be reformed, amended or incorporated into the regulatory system. What the president is looking for is to achieve political support for when he presents the corresponding laws to the national assembly,” Jorge Peñafiel, an attorney and expert in constitutional law and current legislator, told BNamericas.

Peñafiel added that the issues raised by Noboa could be presented as bills directly to the national assembly, taking advantage of the majority that the president currently enjoys due to political alliances.

Former minister and potential presidential candidate for the 2025 elections, Henry Cucalón, said in a television interview that the consultation process, depending on the questions to be asked, “may be a wasted opportunity.”

The first question would ask Ecuadorans if they agree with the armed forces taking action to halt the activities of transnational criminal organizations.

However, the text does not refer to the reform approved on December 21 by the national assembly that would allow the armed forces to support the police in their fight against arms trafficking, human trafficking, organized crime and crime in general, which must go to a popular consultation because it involves a constitutional reform.

The reform bill was submitted to the legislature by then-president Guillermo Lasso in December 2022.

According to Cucalón, this reform is vital and the legislation establishes that the referendum be held 45 days after approval, so the logical thing would be for the two popular consultations to be held on the same date.

Various sectors requested that Noboa's popular consultation include a question on the extradition of Ecuadorans who commit transnational crimes, so organized crime bosses can be tried and serve their sentence outside the country, as Colombia has done.

The issue, however, does not appear among the questions.

Noboa argues that the consultation, among other objectives, seeks to authorize the intervention of the military in the fight against crime and support the justice system so those convicted of organized crime are handed longer sentences.

Regarding casinos and gambling, Noboa says reopening such establishments seeks to promote employment and boost economic growth.

Noboa, son of the banana billionaire and five-time presidential candidate Alvaro Noboa, assumed the presidency in November to serve until May 2025, when the term of Lasso, who when facing impeachment dissolved the national assembly and called early elections, was due to end.

Noboa has said he will run for reelection in 2025.