El Niño strengthening, set to stick around through 1Q16

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather phenomenon will affect climate conditions through the rest of the year, and there is a more than 90% likelihood that ENSO will remain in effect through 1Q16, according to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).

El Niño has strengthened over the last month and is shaping up to be one of the most powerful since 1950, said IRI chief forecaster Anthony Barnsten.

Based on models, ENSO is expected to peak in late 2015 and is forecast to be almost strong as the 1997-98 El Niño.

ENSO affects have already been recorded in the Caribbean and Central America, with the latter reporting the driest period recorded in the last fifty years.

Furthermore, it is understood that Central America was one of the only regions in the world that experienced ENSO in 2014, with the problems largely carrying over into this year, challenging water supplies and agricultural production.

The stronger ENSO will mean prolonged below-average rainfall in the northern parts of South America and higher-than-normal rainfall in southeastern South America and central Chile, the IRI said.