Expert urges more assertive trade stance from CentAm

Former Mexican trade undersecretary Luis de la Calle called on the regional leaders of Central America and the Dominican Republic to take a more aggressive stance on trade and not wait for imminent changes in US trade policy before reacting, speaking at a regional conference with the IMF Thursday in Antigua, Guatemala.

The region should adopt a stance that is "70% offense and 30% defense" in order to avoid being dependent on the decisions of US president-elect Donald Trump, and take measures to defend the region's rights, above all if the US adopts a protectionist agenda, explained De la Calle, whose background includes overseeing bilateral trade negotiations within the WTO for Mexico. He is currently operating as a founding partner of economy, regulation and trade consulting agency De la Calle, Madrazo, Mancera.

Trump's upset victory sent financial shockwaves through Central America and Mexico, affecting the world's most economically exposed countries in terms of possible protectionist changes to US trade and immigration policies.

Those changes will certainly include a review or replacement of Nafta over the first 200 days of the Trump regime, which will affect Mexico. Other treaties, including Cafta-DR, affecting Central America, would appear to be up for US scrutiny thereafter.

De la Calle advocated a "more ambitious" agenda from Mexico, as well as Central America and the Dominican Republic, urging the audience – including central bankers, finance officials and regulators, corporate executives and IMF officials – to speak out and make their own proposals instead of simply adopting a wait-and-see approach to US policy proposals.

He also called for countries in the region to treat one another as "partners", adding, "even if things were to go well with Trump, a very unlikely possibility, there are things to get done among ourselves."

IMF deputy director Mitsuhiro Furusawa opened the two-day conference Thursday morning, reaffirming the organization's growth forecast for the region at 3.9% for 2016 and 4.1% in 2017, after reaching 4.2% in 2015. Panama looks to be the Central American standout in annual GDP growth, with an expansion of 5%, and the IMF sees the nation growing 5.2% in 2016 and 5.8% in 2017.

Broadening the scope to both Central America and the Caribbean, Furusawa added that the strongest growth in both regions would be in the Dominican Republic this year, at 5.9%. However, Panama looks to take the lead in 2017, as the Dominican Republic should see a slowdown next year, reaching only 4.5% growth, according to the IMF.