Experts visualize a dollar-peso without major variations

By Capitaria
November 27, 2023

This is a machine translation of the original press release issued in Spanish.

Today, a new version of The Dollar Enigma was held, an annual event organized by the trading broker Capitaria, an event where the global and regional economic perspectives were analyzed, with a focus on Chile, as well as the projection of the North American currency.

The event included the participation of the former President of Colombia, Iván Duque, who referred to the global economic-political panorama and the challenges of our society. Subsequently, a conversation took place between the former Minister of Finance of Chile, Felipe Larraín, and the former president of Codelco , Óscar Landerretche, who referred to the volatility of the dollar in our country and the factors that will influence the greenback.

In the first instance, Larraín assured that the value of the dollar should tend to depreciate, but not very aggressively. “There is a probable scenario of lowering rates by the Central Bank of Chile; Adding this to the present of the national economy, we could expect a value of the greenback between $840 and $880,” he noted.

Landerretche agreed with that vision, projecting a stable greenback. “The rate hikes by the United States Federal Reserve have vanished, now they will be maintained and then they should go down, a process that will take some time. Along with this, I am 70% sure that the Central Bank of Chile will lower rates as well. Due to these factors we expect a dollar that will remain, perhaps with a downward trend, but not in a very dramatic way,” he highlighted.

Along these lines, the former Codelco helmsman sees few elements that will change the trend of the dollar. “The world is in a slow, unattractive scenario, as is the case of China and Europe. Internally, our country's political problems are not going to be resolved in 2024 or 2025. The unfortunate thing is that Chile has not had a value proposition for a long time, that is, it has discerned an effective development strategy," explained the expert. .

In this matter, the former Minister of Finance highlighted the closure of the new Constitution process as another fundamental factor in the value of the greenback. “This process has generated a lot of uncertainty, to the point that in September 2022 we reached the historical maximum and above $1,000, so the rejection of the last Constitution was a good decision. Today, the important thing is that the process is closed, although the hardest left is waiting for its opportunity to insist on a new Constitution like the one that was rejected in the past," he pointed out.

Given the latter, Landerretche said that Chileans, in general, do not want to know more about the Constitution. “If he wins approval it will be a victory for one of the possible candidates on the right thinking about the presidential elections,” he reinforced.

International geopolitical analysis with a focus on Latin America

For his part, the former President of Colombia, Iván Duque, highlighted the complexities that are coming to the world in 2024, highlighting the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the present of the United States and, in turn, the same with the economy. in China, although it nevertheless detects opportunities for Latin America.

“The focus on the nationalization of health in some nations, as well as the pension reform process can affect confidence, while those who are based on good macroeconomic decisions, betting on stability according to the rules of the game, will have the least volatility.” possible,” said the former President regarding the outlook for our continent.

Finally, Duque called to defend democracy in this part of the world. “The invitation is for us to seek that defense of democracy, of freedom, confronting demagogues, promoting educators and knowing that our region continues to be one of opportunities, where we have to navigate a VICA world (of volatility, uncertainty , complexity and ambiguity)”, he concluded.

The general manager of Capitaria, Pedro Torrealba, and the main partner of Extend, Marily Lüders, also participated during the event.

If you want to see what The Dollar Enigma 2023 was, you can do so through the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d9Mq4g1jrI .