Geohazards seen as money pit risk for Mexico’s Maya train project

Three of the seven stretches that make up Mexico’s Maya train project face potential setbacks due to geological concerns, according to analysis by PwC and Woodhouse Lorente Ludlow (WLL). 

The complete document was obtained and reported on by local daily El Universal, show that certain elements of the original document were not included in an economic advisory report to the finance ministry, including indications that geological hazards were a serious concern.

The daily reported, “The promoters of the Maya train eliminated negative aspects related to its route, demand and construction risks delivered in the ‘financial economic advisory’ [report] from consulting firm PwC … Among the almost 7,500 pages, it is observed how different criticisms and details were eliminated from the final reports while the delays accumulated.”

The outlet reported the document as stating, “From Mérida to Cancun, limestone rock has been detected with a 75% probability of risk in the most complicated sections,” which is an area covered by stretch 4.

The same 75% level also exists on stretch 6 (Tulum-Chetumal) and stretch 2 (Escárega-Calkiní), according to the report.

Should the geological conditions manifest problems in the construction, it added, “There is a 95% probability that it will have a high impact on the project schedule with a delay of 12 months. There is also a 95% chance that if such problems were to arise on the ground, cost overruns will be 20%.”

The Maya train’s cost is currently running at roughly 161bn pesos (US$8.13bn), well above earlier projections of around US$6.7bn. The latest problem of potential geohazards might have been identified due to the lack of in-depth geological surveys, which are normally part of the environmental impact statements (EIS) required for infrastructure projects.

Mexican tourism authority Fonatur, the entity overseeing the project, began construction on the first four of the seven stretches without presenting an EIS, and at least one area, along stretch 4, has required authorities to re-route certain sections to avoid geohazards.

The change caused a decrease in the work’s estimated profitability of 8% and an increase of 12.2% in the required investment, according to the report. 

The Yucatán Peninsula, upon which the Maya train will traverse, is known for its natural sinkholes, or cenotes, resulting from the collapse of limestone bedrock that exposes groundwater – a major attraction for international tourists (pictured).

The limestone-heavy nature of the peninsula with the underground network of rivers has been tied to at least one sinkhole running on stretch 5 from Cancún to Tulum. Fonatur is currently working with the government to make repairs or build around this and another sinkhole tied to a geological formation running under highway 307 (and the route of the train) out to the sea. 

The results of the study stem from an invitation in 2019 by Fonatur, PwC and WLL, with the support of Mexican infrastructure consultancy Mextypsa, to 79 firms for a presentation of the project, where 56 attended and 37 participated in information sessions and interviews.

Those interviews laid the groundwork for the study in addition to the firms’ own research and 10 interviews held with potential financial backers.

Other concerns raised in the documents obtained by El Universal show that private firms involved are concerned that political risk could put the project in danger. 

Another risk factor that could force re-routes is the discovery of archaeological sites, as was the case earlier this month when Fonatur confirmed that an archeological zone had been discovered near Candelaria municipality, in the state of Campeche.

Candelaria is a proposed stop on stretch 1, which runs from Palenque in Chiapas state to Escárega, Campeche, located between the Escárega and El Triunfo stations.