Global copper demand forecast to grow 28% in a decade

Global copper demand is set to increase 28% during the next decade, according to UK consultancy Roskill. 

“Roskill predicts that global copper consumption (refined demand and direct use scrap) will grow from a little under 30Mt in 2020 to 38Mt by 2030, an increase of 28%,” the firm said in a release. 

Growth will be led by China, which in 2020 will account for 56% of global refined copper consumption, compensating for the 10% drop in the rest of the world caused by the global health crisis, Roskill said. For this year, global copper consumption will decline only 1-2%, according to the release. 

In August, the firm predicted that world copper consumption could fall 3-4% this year due to the pandemic. 

Roskill also highlighted that shortages of scrap, partly caused by China’s import quota system, forced consumers to replace it with extra volumes of refined cathodes, and this has also contributed to the recovery in prices. 

“On 30^th November 2020, the LME copper cash price hit its highest level since March 2013 as it closed at US$7,675/t,” the release reads. 

“To date, the copper price has rallied 66% in just eight months from its March low, making it the most resilient of the LME base metals.” 

Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and produced 5.78Mt of the metal last year. Some 33% of the country’s exports go to China, and of that copper represents 48%, according to export promotion agency ProChile. 

Photo credit: Chile's mining ministry