Guatemala lowers power demand growth guidance

The energy mining planning unit of Guatemala’s energy and mines ministry has lowered electricity demand projections due to previously overvalued forecasts.

“Currently, the growth in demand has increased in a conservative manner,” according to the ministry’s 2022-52 indicative expansion plan for the generation system.

Power consumption is estimated to grow 2.85% and 1.63% in average and low scenarios, and annual maximum capacity demand is projected to increase 2.34% and 1.15% in the same scenarios.

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Nevertheless, the roadmap highlights a risk of deficit starting in 2030 and increasing in 2042.

“The risk of the deficit is related to the energy that for different technical reasons cannot be delivered to the demand points, such as network restrictions or others,” it states.

The plan identifies 57 candidate plants that would add 2,600MW, over a third of which would come from hydropower and a quarter based on natural gas-fired generation.

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The BNamericas Project Profiles team is tracking 12 generation projects in the country that are in early-stage development or construction.

DISPATCH

In the ministry’s 2022-52 indicative expansion plan for the transport system, the goal is for 90% of the population to have electricity access in 2023 and nearly 100% by 2032. Coverage was 89% in 2021.

The dispatch plan also promotes the development of 14 substations to boost regional interconnections.

The 149-page transport plan is available here, and the 174-page generation plan at this link.

Also read Single digit growth forecast for CentAm power demand

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In a related note, Guatemala’s power regulator CNEE approved reference terms to be used by distributors Deorsa and Deocsa, known collectively as Energuate, and EEGSA to draft bidding rules to supply energy from May 1 this year to April 30, 2023.