Forecast sees congestion risk for Peru’s Camisea gas duct

There exists the risk of congestion for Peru’s Camisea natural gas pipeline due to offtake from power plants, according to power grid coordinator COES.

In its latest long-term operational plan, COES expects maximum daily average consumption for gas-fired generation in the center of the country to hit 604Mf3/d (million cubic feet per day), 620Mf3/d and 620Mf3/d in 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively.

The values are based without considering restrictions of Camisea gas availability and considering normal hydrology conditions during the dry season.

The consumption exceeds available Camisea capacity for power generation of 585Mf3/d, 570Mf3/d and 555Mf3/d in those three years.

Maximum Camisea gas use by non-generators in 2025, 2026 and 2027 is projected at 335Mf3/d, 350Mf3/d and 365Mf3/d, respectively. The pipeline’s capacity for domestic use is 920Mf3/d.

Considering normal hydrology, there would be a deficit of efficient generation of 4% (327MW) next year, 6% (516MW) in 2025 and 6% (536MW) the following year. This would require the use of liquid fuels to generate power.

“Likewise, the minimum values of the generation reserve considering all the plants in the system (including those that operate with diesel and residual) would be 27% (2,121MW) in 2025, 24% (1,931MW) in 2026 and 23% (1,912MW) in 2027, which are insufficient if there were a larger contingency such as the Camisea gas pipeline coming offline, which disrupts approximately 2,600MW,” the plan adds.

Regarding transmission, COES said that no grid restrictions are expected for installations with voltage levels greater than 100kV.

The outlook is available in the Documents box in the top right corner.

Average Camisea offtake by sector in the first quarter in million cubic feet per day (Source: Osinergmin)