How Guyana’s oil output may evolve in the coming years
Oil production in Guyana could peak in 2028 in the absence of further sanctioned phases, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In a new report, the IEA forecasts that output in the country would hit 1.3Mb/d (million barrels per day) that year and decline to 1.1Mb/d by 2030.
In April, partners of Guyana’s flagship upstream development, the Stabroek offshore block, announced the sanction of the acreage’s sixth phase, Whiptail (250,000b/d) which is penciled in to come online at the end of 2027.
Whiptail joined phases four (Yellowtail) and five (Uaru), each 250,000b/d and expected to startup in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Stabroek production currently comes from phases Liza 1 (150,000b/d), Liza 2 (250,000b/d) and Payara (220,000b/d).
The block’s gross discovered recoverable resource reaches 11Bboe (billion of barrels of oil equivalent) and the partners, led by operator ExxonMobil envision the potential for up to 10 FPSOs.
The International Energy Forum recently pointed to Guyana's low production cost of US$36/b.
The IEA also highlights this year’s expected final investment decision for offshore block 58 in neighboring Suriname, which would be this country’s first deepwater oil contributor.
REGIONAL OUTLOOK
“We do not expect significant short-term upside as capacity is currently constrained by long overdue maintenance, modest operational enhancements and US sanctions. Consequently, we are holding our crude oil capacity estimate at 880kb/d through the remainder of the forecast,” the IEA said regarding Venezuela, which is OPEC’s only member from Latin America.
For its part, Mexico “has floundered since the pandemic when Pemex severely curtailed investments... Additionally, the administration has requested they focus on quick crude production growth from onshore and shallow-water fields to the detriment of larger resource deepwater reservoirs.”
The IEA forecasts that Mexico posts the largest drop in output out of all producers, falling 640,000b/d to 1.5Mb/d.
Meanwhile, apart from Guyana, non-OPEC supply will be boosted by Brazil’s offshore pre-salt reservoirs and Argentina’s Neuquén basin, offset by projected declines in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru due to the lack of investment and projects.
IEA’s report, which includes a look at refinery operations and trade, is available in the Documents box in the top right corner.
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