How Paraguay’s primaries will shape the presidential race

Allies of Paraguay’s President Mario Abdo are seen at a disadvantage against those of his predecessor Horacio Cartes in the December 18 primaries of the ruling Colorado Party.

Fragmentation within a ruling coalition is normal in Paraguay, but Abdo was dealt a heavy blow in August when vice president Hugo Velazquez, who led a strong campaign to become presidential candidate, resigned following corruption allegations by US authorities.

Velazquez was replaced by then-public works minister Arnoldo Wiens, but the latter is still trailing Santiago Peña, who was finance minister in the Cartes administration.

“It seems [Wiens] doesn’t have time to impose himself and close the gap with Santiago Peña,” Marcos Pérez, researcher at Paraguay’s science and technology council (Conacyt) told BNamericas.

As public works minister, Wiens pushed a PPP agenda and oversaw the construction of the first section of the bioceanic highway, as well as the construction start of the second and third bridges linking to Brazil and of the Asunción-Chaco'i bridge. 

The main opposition force, Concertación Para un Nuevo Paraguay, is a left-wing block comprising over a dozen parties, which was created this year and will also hold primaries on Sunday. Another former public works minister, Efraín Alegre, is the frontrunner. 

Alegre served under ex-president Fernando Lugo between 2008 and 2011 and is running on an anti-corruption platform, which could give him an angle to attack Peña and the Colorado coalition. 

“The number of contract killings and organized crime are growing and that naturally creates fear among citizens,” Pérez said, adding that Cartes was also accused of corruption by US authorities. 

Earlier this year, Paraguay was rocked by the assassinations of anti-drug prosecutor Marcelo Pecci and mayor José Carlos Acevedo, both of which were attributed to organized crime. 

Pérez said employment and inflation will also be priorities for voters in the general election, which will be held on April 30. Voters will also determine the make-up of congress, where Colorado could gain majorities in both houses, even if it lost the presidential race, Pérez said.

“Traditional parties, which are the only ones that can mobilize large sections of the electorate and have access to massive financing will improve their percentages in congress,” he said.