LatAm to near 10mn 5G connections by 2022 - Cisco

Latin America is expected to have 9.7mn 5G connections by 2022, three years after the arrival of the technology in the region. This number will represent around 1% of all mobile connections by then according to Cisco's latest Visual Networking Index (VNI).

The global study on networks and devices was released on February 20, with regional breakdowns. Specific regional data is available for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico.

According to the study, Brazil will account for 4mn of all 5G connections in 2022, followed by Mexico (2.2mn), Argentina (1.2mn) and Chile (506,900). In the rest of Latin America will be 1.9mn 5G connections by 2022, Cisco said.

"In the region, 5G begins in 2019 but at first as trial and experimentations. It is only in 2021 that the technology begins to really massify. Talking about Brazil, 2G is set to die, as it is not economical from the point of view of spectral efficiency and energy efficiency and does not offer a good experience," Giuseppe Marrara, Cisco's government affairs director for Brazil, said at the press conference to present the VNI.

5G is likely to kick off delivering speeds lower than the gigabyte-pattern often attributed to the technology, although the speed rates will gradually rise, according to Marrara.

Cisco projects that Chile will have the fastest average 5G speed in the region by 2022, at 126Mbps, which is still below the projected global average of 170Mbps.

In the region, Chile will be followed by Brazil (94.2Mbps), Mexico (89.4Mbps), Argentina (82Mbps) and the rest (79.2Mbps), Cisco predicts.

MOBILE USERS

According to the index, there were 480mn (74% of Latin America's population) mobile users in Latin America in 2017, up 2% from 472mn in 2016. This number will grow to 519mn (77% of Latin America's population) by 2022.

Argentina had a 74% mobile penetration in 2017, which will rise to 76% in 2022 and to 1.9 devices per capita from 1.6 devices per capita in 2017. Meanwhile, average cellular speeds will jump to 17.9Mbps from 5.1Mbps.

Brazil had an 80% mobile penetration, which will increase to 82% in 2022 and to 1.5 devices per capita from 1.2 devices per capita in 2017. Average cellular speeds will rise to 19.7Mbps from 5.7Mbps.

Mexico had a 74% mobile penetration in 2017. That will rise to 76% in 2022 and to 1.2 devices per capita from 1 device per capita in 2017, as average cellular speeds will reach 20.7Mbps from around 4Mbps.

Finally, Chile had a 82% mobile penetration in 2017, and will have 84% in 2022. Devices per capita will rise from 1.7 in 2017 to 2.2 devices per capita. Meanwhile, average cellular speeds will jump to 22Mbps from 6.6Mbps.

In terms of traffic, mobile traffic per user is seen reaching 8.3GB per month by 2022, up from 1.5GB per month in 2017.

Global mobile traffic will increase seven-fold from 2017 to 2022, but only at a 43% CAGR in Latin America in the same period.

Cisco's full study can be accessed here.